Verona vs AS Roma – 24 May 2026

Serie A Gameweek 38 Sun, May 24 · 19:45 Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi, Verona

Verona 19th · 21 pts · 37 played LDDLD

0–2Full time

AS Roma 3rd · 70 pts · 37 played DWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were slight favourites.

AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Verona. Verona had 7.2 days of rest, AS Roma 7.4 and had to travel 413 km.

Away travel413 kmRest days7.2 · 7.4Matches / 14d1 · 1

Verona17%

Draw26%

AS Roma57%

Expected goals 0.77 – 1.60

Verona14%

Draw21%

AS Roma65%

Expected goals 0.86 – 2.07

Verona17%

Draw26%

AS Roma57%

Expected goals 0.77 – 1.60

Verona13%

Draw23%

AS Roma63%

Expected goals 0.69 – 1.80

Verona18%

Draw25%

AS Roma58%

Expected goals 0.87 – 1.75

Over 2.5 42% Both score 44% Likeliest score 0–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Verona)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalySimone Sozza

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.46
Matches 95

Team strength

Verona

AS Roma

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

15 AttackIn forecast 72

29 DefenceIn forecast 75

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Verona

AS Roma

0.68 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.54

1.59 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.84

0.92 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.99

-0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.19

49% Scored inContext 81%

16% Clean sheetsContext 46%

10.86 ShotsContext 12.78

3.72 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.51

33% On target shareContext 35%

6.05 Shots in the boxContext 9.29

55% Box shareContext 71%

6% ConversionContext 12%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.07

13.19 Shots allowedContext 9.65

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.72

4.14 BlocksContext 2.73

2.74 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.91

62% Save rateContext 77%

40% PossessionIn forecast 56%

323 PassesContext 479

244 Accurate passesContext 402

75% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.91

15.49 FoulsContext 13.57

9.24 Fouls sufferedContext 13.73

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.84

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 37 and 37 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98

-0.39 Goals minus xGContext +0.77

40% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.00 ShotsContext 12.40

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

29% On target shareContext 37%

5.90 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

48% Box shareContext 75%

4% ConversionContext 18%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.11

12.90 Shots allowedContext 10.70

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

4.30 BlocksContext 3.00

2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

66% Save rateContext 63%

40% PossessionIn forecast 54%

304 PassesContext 493

232 Accurate passesContext 416

76% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.89

16.30 FoulsContext 12.60

9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Verona

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km282 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AS Roma

Rest7.4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel413 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Verona	AS Roma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Serie A 2025-2026, 17 May	7.4Serie A 2025-2026, 17 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	413 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	282 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	—	92

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Verona Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1L. Montipò(G)

6N. Valentini 5A. Edmundsson 15V. Nelsson

3M. Frese 21A. Harroui 4S. Lovrić 11J. Akpa Akpro 7R. Belghali

18K. Bowie 10T. Suslov

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

22Hermoso 87D. Ghilardi 23G. Mancini

2D. Rensch 61N. Pisilli 4B. Cristante 19M. Çelik

21P. Dybala 18M. Soulé

14D. Malen

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Verona Absences are shown before kick-off

AS Roma Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Verona+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
AS Roma+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Verona · Home 0.44points per game · 18 home games

W-D-L: 1-5-12
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.44

AS Roma · Away 1.56points per game · 18 away games

W-D-L: 9-1-8
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.17

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Verona	AS Roma
Inter	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H	L 2–5 AL 0–1 H
Como	L 0–1 HL 1–3 A	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H
Juventus	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H	D 3–3 HL 1–2 A
Lecce	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A
AC Milan	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A
Torino	L 1–2 AL 0–3 H	W 2–0 AL 0–1 H
Fiorentina	L 0–1 HW 2–1 A	W 4–0 HW 2–1 A
Atalanta	L 0–1 AW 3–1 H	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A
Genoa	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H
Bologna	W 2–1 AL 2–3 H	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H
Napoli	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H
Sassuolo	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A
Parma	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	W 3–2 AW 2–1 H
Pisa	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A
Cagliari	L 0–4 AD 2–2 H	W 2–0 HL 0–1 A
Udinese	L 1–3 HD 1–1 A	L 0–1 AW 2–0 H
Cremonese	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H	W 3–0 HW 3–1 A
Lazio	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A
Points	21 of 108 · 0.58 per game	67 of 108 · 1.86 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 Verona wins1 draws5 AS Roma wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.78 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

28 Sep 2025AS Roma2–0Verona
19 Apr 2025AS Roma1–0Verona
3 Nov 2024Verona3–2AS Roma
20 Jan 2024AS Roma2–1Verona
26 Aug 2023Verona2–1AS Roma
19 Feb 2023AS Roma1–0Verona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Verona	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	0.68	1.54
Conceded per game	1.59	0.84
Match goals	2.27	2.38	2.37
Over 1.5	68%	65%
Over 2.5	51%	38%	42%
Over 3.5	22%	19%
Both teams scored	49%	35%	44%
Clean sheets	16%	46%
Failed to score	51%	19%
Games	37	37

	Verona	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	2.20
Conceded per game	1.10	1.40
Match goals	1.60	3.60	2.37
Over 1.5	50%	90%
Over 2.5	20%	60%	42%
Over 3.5	0%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	44%
Clean sheets	10%	50%
Failed to score	60%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Verona	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	3.81	5.00
Corners conceded	4.83	3.38
Match total	8.64	8.38	8.64
Over 8.5	56% 20/36	49% 18/37
Over 9.5	33% 12/36	32% 12/37
Over 10.5	25% 9/36	24% 9/37
Cards
Cards	2.41	1.95
Opponent cards	1.65	2.19
Match total	4.06	4.14	3.85
Over 3.5	54% 20/37	62% 23/37
Over 4.5	41% 15/37	38% 14/37

	Verona	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	5.40
Corners conceded	4.90	4.60
Match total	9.00	10.00	8.64
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.90
Opponent cards	1.40	2.20
Match total	4.10	4.10	3.85
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 95 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.17league 3.67

Red cards0.14league 0.19

Cards 5+42%league 34%

Fouls24.9league 24.6

Penalties0.46league 0.27

Home wins39%league 39%

Verona4 with this referee

Record1-0-3 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L8 Feb 25H · Atalanta0–52
W15 Dec 24A · Parma3–23
L20 May 23A · Atalanta1–33
L19 Feb 23A · AS Roma0–12

AS Roma17 with this referee

Record7-4-6 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.1 Pens for · against3 · 3 Reds1

L5 Apr 26A · Inter2–51
D1 Mar 26H · Juventus3–31
L20 Dec 25A · Juventus1–23
W21 Sep 25A · Lazio1–01
L12 May 25A · Atalanta1–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.