Viking
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round
Play-off round Wed, Aug 26 · 20:00
Lyse Arena, Stavanger
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,615 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Viking—%
Draw—%
Dinamo Zagreb—%
Weather (Stavanger)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 62
Team strength
Viking
Dinamo Zagreb
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L90 StrengthIn forecast
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16
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
18
AttackIn forecast
33
23
DefenceIn forecast
44
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDinamo Zagreb
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VikingDinamo Zagreb
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
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xGVia Att/Def
1.36
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.84
100%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.67
ShotsContext
16.38
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.38
31%
On target shareContext
27%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.75
70%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
—
OffsidesContext
2.20
13.00
Shots allowedContext
11.75
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.00
BlocksContext
4.57
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
57%
Save rateContext
56%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
411
PassesContext
501
314
Accurate passesContext
414
76%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.88
13.33
FoulsContext
12.22
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
12.56
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Viking
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,231 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Dinamo Zagreb
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,615 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Viking |
Dinamo Zagreb |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 18 Aug | 8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 18 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,615 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,231 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Viking
Confirmed XI
1A. Østbø(G)
28K. Haugen
25H. Falchener
6G. Stensness
5H. Heggheim
7K. Askildsen
8J. Bell
29T. Moi
17E. Austbø
20P. Christiansen
10Z. Tripić
Dinamo Zagreb
Confirmed XI
33I. Nevistić(G)
22M. Vinlöf
26S. McKenna
36Sergi Domínguez
25Moris Valinčić
27J. Mišić
11A. Hoxha
8M. Zajc
7L. Stojković
21M. Lisica
9D. Beljo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Viking
Absences are shown before kick-off
Dinamo Zagreb
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
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Home / Away this season
Viking · Home
No home games yet this season.
Dinamo Zagreb · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Viking wins1 draws0 Dinamo Zagreb wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 18 Aug 2026Dinamo Zagreb2–2Viking
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Viking | Dinamo Zagreb | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Viking | Dinamo Zagreb | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 80% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 1 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Viking | Dinamo Zagreb | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 9.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 9.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 12.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Viking | Dinamo Zagreb | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 11.22 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.66 | 3.90 | 2.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 62 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.26league 2.60
Red cards0.31league 0.30
Cards 5+47%league 10%
Fouls25.1league 23.9
Penalties0.26league 0.20
Home wins50%league 50%
VikingNo previous matches with this referee.
Dinamo ZagrebNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Viking1 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Dinamo Zagreb1 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Viking3 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Dinamo Zagreb10 games · scored 22 · conceded 18
4
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.