Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for RB Leipzig. Werder Bremen had 6 days of rest, RB Leipzig 7 and had to travel 310 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel310 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Werder Bremen21%
Draw21%
RB Leipzig58%
Werder Bremen26%
Draw25%
RB Leipzig50%
Werder Bremen22%
Draw21%
RB Leipzig57%
Werder Bremen15%
Draw18%
RB Leipzig66%
Werder Bremen21%
Draw21%
RB Leipzig58%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
18°CLight rain
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 20 km/h
- Humidity 61%
Referee · GermanyBenjamin Brand
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 64
Team strength
Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
56
AttackIn forecast
76
45
DefenceIn forecast
53
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder BremenRB Leipzig
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
2.03
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.30
ShotsContext
15.50
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.90
34%
On target shareContext
45%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
11.20
59%
Box shareContext
71%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.17
14.90
Shots allowedContext
11.90
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.90
BlocksContext
3.44
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
70%
Save rateContext
62%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
447
PassesContext
462
369
Accurate passesContext
390
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.05
9.40
FoulsContext
9.20
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
L
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,138 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 0 pts vs 1.0 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
- L30 AugA · SC Freiburg1–40.8 xPts
RB Leipzig
W
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel310 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 62 · 3 pts vs 1.7 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected
- W29 AugH · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–02.0 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Bundesliga 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 310 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,138 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
1K. Hein(G)
2O. Deman
32M. Friedl
5A. Pieper
13Arthur
44Y. Regeer
15L. Reis
17M. Grüll
20Chuky
18E. Dinkçi
10N. Füllkrug
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum
3M. Estève
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
6E. Banzuzi
13N. Seiwald
21N. El Aynaoui
7A. Nusa
28C. Nkunku
11S. Bakayoko
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Absences are shown before kick-off
RB Leipzig
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen-1.1 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- RB Leipzig+1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
No home games yet this season.
RB Leipzig · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Werder Bremen wins3 draws5 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game0.88 – 1.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 4 Apr 2026Werder Bremen1–2RB Leipzig
- 23 Nov 2025RB Leipzig2–0Werder Bremen
- 10 May 2025Werder Bremen0–0RB Leipzig
- 12 Jan 2025RB Leipzig4–2Werder Bremen
- 11 May 2024RB Leipzig1–1Werder Bremen
- 19 Dec 2023Werder Bremen1–1RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 4.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 3.00 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Werder Bremen | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.40 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 13.00 | 11.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 1.00 | 3.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Werder Bremen | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 11.55 | 9.55 | 11.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 89% 8/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 0.70 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 2.40 | 3.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benjamin Brand Germany · 64 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.98league 3.10
Red cards0.22league 0.20
Cards 5+42%league 20%
Fouls22.6league 23.0
Penalties0.33league 0.10
Home wins33%league 80%
Werder Bremen8 with this referee
Record3-3-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.8
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- W21 Mar 26A · VfL Wolfsburg1–00
- D16 Jan 26H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–31
- L19 Jan 25H · FC Augsburg0–21
- W15 Sep 24A · FSV Mainz 052–12
- W3 Feb 24A · FSV Mainz 051–03
RB Leipzig9 with this referee
Record5-3-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.9
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- W9 May 26H · FC St. Pauli2–12
- D21 Feb 26H · Borussia Dortmund2–23
- L20 Dec 25H · Bayer Leverkusen1–31
- W20 Sep 25H · 1.FC Köln3–11
- W15 Dec 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen1 games · scored 1 · conceded 4
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
RB Leipzig1 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 13
1
0-15
7
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
