Willem II
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Heerenveen were slight favourites.
Heerenveen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 12). Heerenveen usually keep the ball (52% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Willem II had 14.9 days of rest, Heerenveen 7.7 and had to travel 166 km.
Away travel166 kmRest days14.9 · 7.7Matches / 14d0 · 2
Willem II28%
Draw24%
Heerenveen48%
Willem II29%
Draw25%
Heerenveen46%
Willem II28%
Draw24%
Heerenveen48%
Willem II22%
Draw22%
Heerenveen56%
Willem II29%
Draw24%
Heerenveen47%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Tilburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 39
Team strength
Willem II
Heerenveen
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
10
Current StrengthIn forecast
31
10
AttackIn forecast
36
9
DefenceIn forecast
40
—
Form indexContext
41
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Willem IIHeerenveen
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
4.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
2.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
-0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
100%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.00
ShotsContext
13.00
1.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
14%
On target shareContext
44%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
70%
Box shareContext
55%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
—
OffsidesContext
2.50
20.50
Shots allowedContext
20.33
10.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
4.00
BlocksContext
6.67
6.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
60%
Save rateContext
86%
32%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
269
PassesContext
516
185
Accurate passesContext
440
69%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.45
Team ratingContext
6.93
12.00
FoulsContext
7.67
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.33
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
2.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
90%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.00
ShotsContext
13.10
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
29%
On target shareContext
40%
6.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
63%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
19.22
Shots allowedContext
17.70
6.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
5.88
BlocksContext
5.67
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
66%
Save rateContext
76%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
366
PassesContext
483
288
Accurate passesContext
406
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.93
9.56
FoulsContext
8.80
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.40
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Willem II
LL
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 23 · 0 pts vs 3.4 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Willem II |
Heerenveen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 15 Aug | 7.7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 22 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 166 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 190 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Willem II
Confirmed XI
31Karst de Leeuw
24N. Tjoe-A-On
4J. Hoogma
3F. Stam
5H. ter Avest
6C. Twigt
8Kasper Boogaard
7J. Slory
19U. van Aalst
50Eser Gürbüz
9D. Haen
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
6D. Proper
36N. Courtens
7M. Rivera
10R. Meerveld
20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Willem II
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Heerenveen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Willem II+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Heerenveen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Willem II · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Heerenveen · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Willem II wins0 draws2 Heerenveen wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 4 Apr 2025Heerenveen3–1Willem II
- 8 Dec 2024Willem II1–2Heerenveen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Willem II | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 4.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 2.33 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 2 | 3 |
| Willem II | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 4.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 2.60 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 2 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Willem II | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.50 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 9.67 | 10.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Willem II | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 10.89 | 10.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.30 | 2.60 | 2.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.46league 2.38
Red cards0.08league 0.07
Cards 5+28%league 14%
Fouls22.9league 20.9
Penalties0.13league 0.24
Home wins46%league 34%
Willem II1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W4 Oct 24A · Almere City FC1–03
Heerenveen9 with this referee
Record3-3-3
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- L21 May 26A · Utrecht2–31
- D1 Feb 26H · Utrecht1–11
- D1 Nov 25A · Ajax1–12
- W21 Sep 25H · NEC Nijmegen3–21
- W27 Apr 25H · NEC Nijmegen1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Willem II2 games · scored 2 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
5
61-75
1
76-90
Heerenveen3 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Willem II10 games · scored 9 · conceded 20
2
1
0-15
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
9
61-75
1
3
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
