Willem II
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for NEC Nijmegen. Willem II had 6.9 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 3.9 and had to travel 61 km.
Away travel61 kmRest days6.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
Willem II20%
Draw21%
NEC Nijmegen60%
Willem II23%
Draw24%
NEC Nijmegen53%
Willem II20%
Draw21%
NEC Nijmegen60%
Willem II15%
Draw18%
NEC Nijmegen67%
Willem II20%
Draw21%
NEC Nijmegen59%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Tilburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 105
Team strength
Willem II
NEC Nijmegen
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
10
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
10
AttackIn forecast
37
9
DefenceIn forecast
33
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Willem IINEC Nijmegen
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
2.26
2.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.96
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.56
ShotsContext
18.80
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.10
31%
On target shareContext
32%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
12.10
58%
Box shareContext
64%
7%
ConversionContext
7%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.89
19.00
Shots allowedContext
9.90
5.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
6.25
BlocksContext
2.44
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
66%
Save rateContext
75%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
383
PassesContext
440
310
Accurate passesContext
354
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.00
9.11
FoulsContext
12.60
9.56
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Willem II
L
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km214 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 0 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
- L8 AugA · GO Ahead Eagles1–40.9 xPts
NEC Nijmegen
L
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel61 km4,151 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 33 · 0 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
- L8 AugH · Telstar1–22.0 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Willem II |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 25 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 8 Aug | 3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 11 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 61 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 214 km | 4,151 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 2 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.9 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Willem II
Confirmed XI
31K. de Leeuw(G)
24N. Tjoe-A-On
4J. Hoogma
3F. Stam
22P. van Loon
7J. Slory
8Kasper Boogaard
2A. Ciranni
50Eser Gürbüz
19U. van Aalst
9D. Haen
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville
21T. Storm
2B. Pereira
99Clement Bischoff
35Jamiro Monteiro
6D. Nejašmić
19A. Tahaui
10D. Tadić
9T. Chery
30B. Linssen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Willem II
Absences are shown before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Willem II+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- NEC Nijmegen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Willem II · Home
No home games yet this season.
NEC Nijmegen · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Willem II wins1 draws0 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 3 May 2025NEC Nijmegen1–1Willem II
- 22 Dec 2024Willem II4–1NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Willem II | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 4.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 3.00 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Willem II | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 4.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 2.40 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 1 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Willem II | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 13.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 16.00 | 12.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Willem II | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.78 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 10.78 | 9.67 | 12.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 105 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.97league 2.50
Red cards0.11league 0.10
Cards 5+43%league 10%
Fouls23.0league 21.5
Penalties0.29league 0.00
Home wins50%league 40%
Willem II3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 May 25H · PEC Zwolle1–22
- L27 Apr 25A · Fortuna Sittard0–10
- L28 Sep 24H · PSV Eindhoven0–21
NEC Nijmegen6 with this referee
Record2-3-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D12 Apr 26H · Feyenoord1–13
- W31 Jan 26A · AZ Alkmaar3–12
- L2 Nov 25A · Utrecht0–12
- W11 May 25A · Ajax3–04
- D1 Feb 25H · PSV Eindhoven3–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Willem II1 games · scored 1 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
3
61-75
76-90
NEC Nijmegen1 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Willem II10 games · scored 8 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
7
61-75
3
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
