Zulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Antwerp were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 25). Zulte Waregem had 6.9 days of rest, Antwerp 6.8 and had to travel 81 km.
Away travel81 kmRest days6.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Zulte Waregem33%
Draw28%
Antwerp40%
Zulte Waregem33%
Draw27%
Antwerp40%
Zulte Waregem33%
Draw28%
Antwerp40%
Zulte Waregem26%
Draw27%
Antwerp47%
Zulte Waregem33%
Draw27%
Antwerp40%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Waregem)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 2.3
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 4
Team strength
Zulte Waregem
Antwerp
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
27
AttackIn forecast
24
31
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Zulte WaregemAntwerp
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
75%
Scored inContext
75%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
11.38
ShotsContext
10.38
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
36%
On target shareContext
37%
7.71
Shots in the boxContext
5.63
63%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.86
15.00
Shots allowedContext
14.75
4.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.13
4.13
BlocksContext
3.88
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
63%
Save rateContext
70%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
384
PassesContext
364
314
Accurate passesContext
294
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.13
FoulsContext
11.38
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
14.13
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
75%
Scored inContext
80%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.38
ShotsContext
10.70
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
36%
On target shareContext
36%
7.71
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
63%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.63
15.00
Shots allowedContext
13.40
4.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.13
BlocksContext
3.50
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
63%
Save rateContext
71%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
384
PassesContext
417
314
Accurate passesContext
343
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.98
12.13
FoulsContext
11.30
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Zulte Waregem
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km178 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antwerp
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel81 km84 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Zulte Waregem |
Antwerp |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 6.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 81 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 178 km | 84 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
55Y. Cappelle
5Jakob Kiilerich
3Anton Tanghe
12W. Paugain
8T. Claes
21Tochukwu Nnadi
22J. Opoku
24Jeppe Erenbjerg
11S. Gavriel
18A. Ementa
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
15Y. Thoelen(G)
26R. Bozhinov
33Z. Van Den Bosch
4Yuto Tsunashima
5D. Foulon
34M. Diawara
16M. Benítez
10I. Babadi
24T. Somers
18V. Janssen
9M. Al Sahafi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Zulte Waregem · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Antwerp · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Zulte Waregem | Antwerp |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| OH Leuven | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Genk | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Anderlecht | W 3–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game | 9 of 18 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Zulte Waregem | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.25 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 38% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 75% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Zulte Waregem | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.25 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 38% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 75% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Zulte Waregem | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 11.63 | 8.63 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 2.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 4.38 | 5.38 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Zulte Waregem | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 11.63 | 8.90 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.38 | 5.20 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.25league 3.86
Red cards0.00league 0.22
Cards 5+0%league 42%
Fouls20.0league 23.1
Penalties0.00league 0.32
Home wins50%league 42%
Zulte Waregem1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L2 Aug 25A · KVC Westerlo1–31
AntwerpNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Zulte Waregem8 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Antwerp8 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Zulte Waregem8 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
