Zulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Zulte Waregem were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Charleroi. Zulte Waregem had 7.1 days of rest, Charleroi 8.1 and had to travel 89 km.
Away travel89 kmRest days7.1 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Zulte Waregem44%
Draw25%
Charleroi31%
Zulte Waregem46%
Draw25%
Charleroi29%
Zulte Waregem44%
Draw25%
Charleroi31%
Zulte Waregem36%
Draw25%
Charleroi39%
Zulte Waregem44%
Draw25%
Charleroi31%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Waregem)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Zulte Waregem
Charleroi
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
27
AttackIn forecast
43
31
DefenceIn forecast
50
73
Form indexContext
76
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCharleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Zulte WaregemCharleroi
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.95
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.62
+0.62
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
80%
Scored inContext
100%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.60
ShotsContext
19.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
40%
On target shareContext
31%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
13.40
67%
Box shareContext
70%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
10.60
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.20
BlocksContext
3.60
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
84%
Save rateContext
80%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
351
PassesContext
490
275
Accurate passesContext
413
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.09
Team ratingContext
7.11
11.80
FoulsContext
8.80
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
90%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.60
ShotsContext
16.20
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
39%
On target shareContext
30%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
11.30
64%
Box shareContext
69%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.10
Shots allowedContext
11.50
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.63
3.44
BlocksContext
3.89
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
80%
Save rateContext
83%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
387
PassesContext
453
305
Accurate passesContext
381
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.07
Team ratingContext
7.02
10.90
FoulsContext
9.70
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Zulte Waregem
WDWDW
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km240 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +3.7 vs expected
Charleroi
WWWWL
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel89 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 76 · 12 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · +4.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Zulte Waregem |
Charleroi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 8.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 89 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 240 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
1L. Bostyn(G)
55Y. Cappelle
5Jakob Kiilerich
4L. Lemoine
49Franz Tangala
22O. Niang
6E. Lofolomo
8T. Claes
11M. Aké
21Á. Zalán
18A. Ementa
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
6A. Boukamir
18Y. Khalifi
20F. Mbemba
8J. Romsaas
14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Zulte Waregem · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Charleroi · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Zulte Waregem | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| Kortrijk | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 0–0 A | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Zulte Waregem wins0 draws0 Charleroi wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 22 Mar 2026Zulte Waregem1–0Charleroi
- 20 Sep 2025Charleroi1–2Zulte Waregem
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Zulte Waregem | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Zulte Waregem | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.90 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Zulte Waregem | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 2.00 | 3.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Zulte Waregem | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 11.10 | 10.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.80 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Zulte Waregem5 games · scored 10 · conceded 3
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
76-90
Charleroi5 games · scored 11 · conceded 5
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 23 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
6
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 17 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
