Football / The bigger picture

Insights.

Go beyond the result. Follow the patterns. See the evidence.

How to read the signals →

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Competition selects current clubs. Result windows include all recorded competitions; points comparisons use covered current-league matches.

League insights

UEFA Europa League · 26 signals · 26 clubs in this view

Explore all signals ↓

Automatically selected connections · one story per club · experimental Insight Score orders stories, not teams.

Bayer LeverkusenWinning, and exceeding expectationsInsight Score72/100

A winning run and points above forecast expectations stand out together. Separate the recorded results from the chance balance; the points comparison covers a different set of league matches.

Wins in a rowLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
5
Points minus expected8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
+3.5
Goals scored / matchLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
2.8
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+1.10
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 72/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
73.3
Recency
63.9
Context
100.0
Quality
50.9

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
  • Points minus expected — Points 19; xPts 15.5. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Goals scored / match — UEFA Europa League 2026-2027: 1.43 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-16 → 2026-10-15 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.35; xG against 1.25. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
NEC NijmegenChance balance ahead of the points returnInsight Score67/100

A positive observed xG balance sits alongside points below stored forecast expectations. These are different windows: inspect finishing, conceding and individual matches before assigning a cause.

Points minus expected11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
−6.2
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+0.55
Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-25 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
1.1
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 67/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
56.4
Recency
63.9
Context
100.0
Quality
57.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Points minus expected — Points 11; xPts 17.2. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.94; xG against 1.39. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
  • Goals scored / match — UEFA Europa League 2026-2027: 1.43 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-16 → 2026-10-15 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
BenficaGoals accompanied by a positive chance balanceInsight Score67/100

Goals scored exceed the current league reference, alongside a positive observed xG profile. The sources have different windows; both describe past performances rather than the next result.

Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-20 → 2026-10-15 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
2.7
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+1.26
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 67/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
84.0
Recency
43.4
Context
80.0
Quality
56.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Goals scored / match — UEFA Europa League 2026-2027: 1.43 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-16 → 2026-10-15 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.03; xG against 0.77. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
Union St. GilloiseDefensive consistency, positive chance balanceInsight Score62/100

Clean sheets and low goals conceded accompany a positive observed xG balance. The xG profile describes overall chance balance; it is not, by itself, proof of strong defending.

Clean sheetsLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-11 → 2026-10-15 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
6/10
Goals conceded / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-11 → 2026-10-15 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
0.7
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+0.44
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 62/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
67.2
Recency
43.4
Context
80.0
Quality
56.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Clean sheets — UEFA Europa League 2026-2027: 1.43 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-16 → 2026-10-15 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Goals conceded / match — UEFA Europa League 2026-2027: 1.43 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-16 → 2026-10-15 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.4; xG against 0.96. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
Real SociedadGoals at both endsInsight Score58/100

Scoring and conceding are both above the current league reference, with both teams scoring regularly. The result window spans all competitions; this comparison is not adjusted for opposition.

Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-26 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
1.9
Goals conceded / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-26 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
1.9
Both teams scoredLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-26 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
80%
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
−0.44
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 58/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
54.4
Recency
47.9
Context
80.0
Quality
56.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Goals scored / match — UEFA Europa League 2026-2027: 1.43 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-16 → 2026-10-15 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Goals conceded / match — UEFA Europa League 2026-2027: 1.43 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-16 → 2026-10-15 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Both teams scored — UEFA Europa League 2026-2027: 1.43 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-16 → 2026-10-15 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.28; xG against 1.72. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Each signal belongs to one category. Categories sum to All signals; stories combine related evidence across categories.

Performance26 signals · 26 clubs

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Lech Poznan xG difference per match −1.95 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG51
Observed xG Lech Poznan −1.95 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.06xG against3.01

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.06; xG against 3.01. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 51/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
100.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.06
xG against
3.01

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Benfica xG difference per match +1.26 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG45
Observed xG Benfica +1.26 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.03xG against0.77

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.03; xG against 0.77. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 45/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
84.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.03
xG against
0.77

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Celje xG difference per match −1.12 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG42
Observed xG Celje −1.12 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for0.82xG against1.94

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.82; xG against 1.94. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 42/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
74.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
0.82
xG against
1.94

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Olympiakos Piraeus xG difference per match +1.18 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG44
Observed xG Olympiakos Piraeus +1.18 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.56xG against0.38

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.56; xG against 0.38. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 44/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
78.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.56
xG against
0.38

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Celtic xG difference per match +1.12 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG42
Observed xG Celtic +1.12 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.44xG against1.32

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.44; xG against 1.32. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 42/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
74.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.44
xG against
1.32

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Bayer Leverkusen xG difference per match +1.10 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG42
Observed xG Bayer Leverkusen +1.10 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.35xG against1.25

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.35; xG against 1.25. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 42/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
73.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.35
xG against
1.25

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Juventus xG difference per match +0.89 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG37
Observed xG Juventus +0.89 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.50xG against0.61

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.5; xG against 0.61. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 37/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
59.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.50
xG against
0.61

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
AZ Alkmaar xG difference per match +0.80 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG35
Observed xG AZ Alkmaar +0.80 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.20xG against1.40

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.2; xG against 1.4. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 35/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
53.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.20
xG against
1.40

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Besiktas xG difference per match +0.79 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG34
Observed xG Besiktas +0.79 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.06xG against1.27

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.06; xG against 1.27. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 34/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
52.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.06
xG against
1.27

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
AC Milan xG difference per match +0.70 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG32
Observed xG AC Milan +0.70 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.97xG against1.27

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.97; xG against 1.27. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 32/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
46.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.97
xG against
1.27

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Bournemouth xG difference per match +0.67 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG32
Observed xG Bournemouth +0.67 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.82xG against1.15

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.82; xG against 1.15. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 32/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
44.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.82
xG against
1.15

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
OFI xG difference per match −0.66 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG31
Observed xG OFI −0.66 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for0.66xG against1.32

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.66; xG against 1.32. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 31/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
44.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
0.66
xG against
1.32

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
NEC Nijmegen xG difference per match +0.55 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG29
Observed xG NEC Nijmegen +0.55 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.94xG against1.39

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.94; xG against 1.39. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 29/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
36.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.94
xG against
1.39

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Marseille xG difference per match +0.50 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG28
Observed xG Marseille +0.50 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.83xG against1.33

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.83; xG against 1.33. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 28/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
33.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.83
xG against
1.33

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Omonia Nicosia xG difference per match +0.50 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG28
Observed xG Omonia Nicosia +0.50 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.43xG against0.93

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.43; xG against 0.93. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 28/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
33.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.43
xG against
0.93

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Union St. Gilloise xG difference per match +0.44 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG26
Observed xG Union St. Gilloise +0.44 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.40xG against0.96

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.4; xG against 0.96. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 26/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
29.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.40
xG against
0.96

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Real Sociedad xG difference per match −0.44 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG26
Observed xG Real Sociedad −0.44 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.28xG against1.72

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.28; xG against 1.72. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 26/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
29.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.28
xG against
1.72

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Rennes xG difference per match +0.21 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG21
Observed xG Rennes +0.21 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.12xG against1.91

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.12; xG against 1.91. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 21/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
14.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.12
xG against
1.91

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Plzen xG difference per match −0.39 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG25
Observed xG Plzen −0.39 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for0.97xG against1.36

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.97; xG against 1.36. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 25/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
26.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
0.97
xG against
1.36

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Dinamo Zagreb xG difference per match −0.38 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG25
Observed xG Dinamo Zagreb −0.38 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.20xG against1.58

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.2; xG against 1.58. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 25/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
25.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.20
xG against
1.58

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Crystal Palace xG difference per match −0.34 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG24
Observed xG Crystal Palace −0.34 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.52xG against1.86

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.52; xG against 1.86. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 24/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
22.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.52
xG against
1.86

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Red Bull Salzburg xG difference per match −0.29 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG23
Observed xG Red Bull Salzburg −0.29 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.35xG against1.64

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.35; xG against 1.64. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 23/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
19.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.35
xG against
1.64

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Sturm Graz xG difference per match −0.29 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG23
Observed xG Sturm Graz −0.29 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.16xG against1.45

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.16; xG against 1.45. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 23/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
19.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.16
xG against
1.45

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Lyon xG difference per match −0.25 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG22
Observed xG Lyon −0.25 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.32xG against1.57

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.32; xG against 1.57. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 22/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
16.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.32
xG against
1.57

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Jagiellonia xG difference per match −0.23 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG21
Observed xG Jagiellonia −0.23 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.55xG against1.78

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.55; xG against 1.78. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 21/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
15.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.55
xG against
1.78

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Sparta Praha xG difference per match −0.21 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG21
Observed xG Sparta Praha −0.21 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.15xG against1.36

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.15; xG against 1.36. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 21/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
14.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.15
xG against
1.36

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →

Showing 1–26 of 26 signals

About these insights
A little context goes a long way

Read the signal. Keep the context.

Insights describe what is recorded. Use club and match analysis to explore what comes next.

Insight Score · experimental editorial interest. This version uses 0.35D + 0.25R + 0.20C + 0.20Q. D measures heuristic deviation, R observation recency, C breadth of evidence families and Q data quality. These starting weights are uncalibrated. It is neither team strength, win probability, statistical significance nor forecast confidence. Related result signals share one family; different sources are not automatically statistically independent. Unknown dates receive zero recency; unknown xG coverage limits its quality component. League averages are context references, not opponent-adjusted estimates.

01

Check the window

Result signals use the last 10 recorded matches; away signals use the last 8 away matches. At least 5 are required. Missing and special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound.

02

Read the chart

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored or conceded, capped at 6; zero keeps a marker. Teal / amber / red means win / draw / loss. Faded bars mean the event did not happen. Open the evidence for full scores.

03

Separate the sources

xG uses observed Playing style averages before the next or latest league fixture; coverage can differ between inputs. xPts comes from stored LOAD90 forecasts on identical covered games, including labelled historical reconstructions.

Types alternate for variety. Values are ordered within their own metric, without a combined ranking. These descriptive signals do not change the LOAD90 forecast.

Explore methodology →