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UEFA Europa League · 26 signals · 26 clubs in this view
Bayer LeverkusenWinning, and exceeding expectationsInsight Score72/100
A winning run and points above forecast expectations stand out together. Separate the recorded results from the chance balance; the points comparison covers a different set of league matches.
- Wins in a rowLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 5
- Points minus expected8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games - +3.5
- Goals scored / matchLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 2.8
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - +1.10
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 73.3
- Recency
- 64.0
- Context
- 100.0
- Quality
- 50.9
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Points minus expected — Points 19; xPts 15.5. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Goals scored / match — UEFA Europa League 2026-2027: 1.43 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-16 → 2026-10-15 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.35; xG against 1.25. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
NEC NijmegenChance balance ahead of the points returnInsight Score67/100
A positive observed xG balance sits alongside points below stored forecast expectations. These are different windows: inspect finishing, conceding and individual matches before assigning a cause.
- Points minus expected11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games - −6.2
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - +0.55
- Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-25 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 1.1
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 56.4
- Recency
- 64.0
- Context
- 100.0
- Quality
- 57.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Points minus expected — Points 11; xPts 17.2. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.94; xG against 1.39. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Goals scored / match — UEFA Europa League 2026-2027: 1.43 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-16 → 2026-10-15 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
BenficaGoals accompanied by a positive chance balanceInsight Score67/100
Goals scored exceed the current league reference, alongside a positive observed xG profile. The sources have different windows; both describe past performances rather than the next result.
- Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-20 → 2026-10-15 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 2.7
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - +1.26
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 84.0
- Recency
- 43.4
- Context
- 80.0
- Quality
- 56.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Goals scored / match — UEFA Europa League 2026-2027: 1.43 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-16 → 2026-10-15 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.03; xG against 0.77. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
Union St. GilloiseDefensive consistency, positive chance balanceInsight Score62/100
Clean sheets and low goals conceded accompany a positive observed xG balance. The xG profile describes overall chance balance; it is not, by itself, proof of strong defending.
- Clean sheetsLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-11 → 2026-10-15 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 6/10
- Goals conceded / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-11 → 2026-10-15 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 0.7
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - +0.44
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 67.2
- Recency
- 43.4
- Context
- 80.0
- Quality
- 56.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Clean sheets — UEFA Europa League 2026-2027: 1.43 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-16 → 2026-10-15 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Goals conceded / match — UEFA Europa League 2026-2027: 1.43 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-16 → 2026-10-15 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.4; xG against 0.96. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
Real SociedadGoals at both endsInsight Score58/100
Scoring and conceding are both above the current league reference, with both teams scoring regularly. The result window spans all competitions; this comparison is not adjusted for opposition.
- Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-26 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 1.9
- Goals conceded / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-26 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 1.9
- Both teams scoredLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-26 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 80%
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - −0.44
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 54.4
- Recency
- 48.0
- Context
- 80.0
- Quality
- 56.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Goals scored / match — UEFA Europa League 2026-2027: 1.43 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-16 → 2026-10-15 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Goals conceded / match — UEFA Europa League 2026-2027: 1.43 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-16 → 2026-10-15 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Both teams scored — UEFA Europa League 2026-2027: 1.43 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-16 → 2026-10-15 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.28; xG against 1.72. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
Each signal belongs to one category. Categories sum to All signals; stories combine related evidence across categories.
Performance26 signals · 26 clubs
Select a row to explore the evidence. Scroll to see all columns →
Lech Poznan
xG difference per match
−1.95
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG51
Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.06; xG against 3.01. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 100.0
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.06
- xG against
- 3.01
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Benfica
xG difference per match
+1.26
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG45
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.03; xG against 0.77. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 84.0
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 2.03
- xG against
- 0.77
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Celje
xG difference per match
−1.12
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG42
Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.82; xG against 1.94. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 74.7
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 0.82
- xG against
- 1.94
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Olympiakos Piraeus
xG difference per match
+1.18
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG44
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.56; xG against 0.38. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 78.7
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.56
- xG against
- 0.38
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Celtic
xG difference per match
+1.12
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG42
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.44; xG against 1.32. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 74.7
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 2.44
- xG against
- 1.32
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Bayer Leverkusen
xG difference per match
+1.10
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG42
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.35; xG against 1.25. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 73.3
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 2.35
- xG against
- 1.25
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Juventus
xG difference per match
+0.89
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG37
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.5; xG against 0.61. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 59.3
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.50
- xG against
- 0.61
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
AZ Alkmaar
xG difference per match
+0.80
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG35
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.2; xG against 1.4. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 53.3
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 2.20
- xG against
- 1.40
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Besiktas
xG difference per match
+0.79
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG34
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.06; xG against 1.27. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 52.7
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 2.06
- xG against
- 1.27
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
AC Milan
xG difference per match
+0.70
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG32
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.97; xG against 1.27. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 46.7
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.97
- xG against
- 1.27
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Bournemouth
xG difference per match
+0.67
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG32
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.82; xG against 1.15. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 44.7
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.82
- xG against
- 1.15
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
OFI
xG difference per match
−0.66
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG31
Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.66; xG against 1.32. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 44.0
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 0.66
- xG against
- 1.32
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
NEC Nijmegen
xG difference per match
+0.55
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG29
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.94; xG against 1.39. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 36.7
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.94
- xG against
- 1.39
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Marseille
xG difference per match
+0.50
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG28
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.83; xG against 1.33. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 33.3
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.83
- xG against
- 1.33
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Omonia Nicosia
xG difference per match
+0.50
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG28
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.43; xG against 0.93. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 33.3
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.43
- xG against
- 0.93
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Union St. Gilloise
xG difference per match
+0.44
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG26
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.4; xG against 0.96. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 29.3
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.40
- xG against
- 0.96
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Real Sociedad
xG difference per match
−0.44
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG26
Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.28; xG against 1.72. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 29.3
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.28
- xG against
- 1.72
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Rennes
xG difference per match
+0.21
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG21
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.12; xG against 1.91. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 14.0
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 2.12
- xG against
- 1.91
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Plzen
xG difference per match
−0.39
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG25
Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.97; xG against 1.36. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 26.0
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 0.97
- xG against
- 1.36
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Dinamo Zagreb
xG difference per match
−0.38
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG25
Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.2; xG against 1.58. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 25.3
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.20
- xG against
- 1.58
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Crystal Palace
xG difference per match
−0.34
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG24
Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.52; xG against 1.86. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 22.7
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.52
- xG against
- 1.86
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Red Bull Salzburg
xG difference per match
−0.29
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG23
Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.35; xG against 1.64. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 19.3
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.35
- xG against
- 1.64
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Sturm Graz
xG difference per match
−0.29
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG23
Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.16; xG against 1.45. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 19.3
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.16
- xG against
- 1.45
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Lyon
xG difference per match
−0.25
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG22
Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.32; xG against 1.57. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 16.7
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.32
- xG against
- 1.57
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Jagiellonia
xG difference per match
−0.23
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG21
Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.55; xG against 1.78. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 15.3
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.55
- xG against
- 1.78
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Sparta Praha
xG difference per match
−0.21
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG21
Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.15; xG against 1.36. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 14.0
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.15
- xG against
- 1.36
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →About these insights
Read the signal. Keep the context.
Insights describe what is recorded. Use club and match analysis to explore what comes next.
Insight Score · experimental editorial interest. This version uses 0.35D + 0.25R + 0.20C + 0.20Q. D measures heuristic deviation, R observation recency, C breadth of evidence families and Q data quality. These starting weights are uncalibrated. It is neither team strength, win probability, statistical significance nor forecast confidence. Related result signals share one family; different sources are not automatically statistically independent. Unknown dates receive zero recency; unknown xG coverage limits its quality component. League averages are context references, not opponent-adjusted estimates.
Check the window
Result signals use the last 10 recorded matches; away signals use the last 8 away matches. At least 5 are required. Missing and special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound.
Read the chart
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored or conceded, capped at 6; zero keeps a marker. Teal / amber / red means win / draw / loss. Faded bars mean the event did not happen. Open the evidence for full scores.
Separate the sources
xG uses observed Playing style averages before the next or latest league fixture; coverage can differ between inputs. xPts comes from stored LOAD90 forecasts on identical covered games, including labelled historical reconstructions.
Types alternate for variety. Values are ordered within their own metric, without a combined ranking. These descriptive signals do not change the LOAD90 forecast.
Explore methodology →