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Go beyond the result. Follow the patterns. See the evidence.

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Competition selects current clubs. Result windows include all recorded competitions; points comparisons use covered current-league matches.

League insights

Eredivisie · 5 signals · 1 clubs in this view

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Automatically selected connections · one story per club · experimental Insight Score orders stories, not teams.

NEC NijmegenChance balance ahead of the points returnInsight Score69/100

A positive observed xG balance sits alongside points below stored forecast expectations. These are different windows: inspect finishing, conceding and individual matches before assigning a cause.

Points minus expected11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
−6.2
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+0.55
Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-25 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
1.1
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 69/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
56.4
Recency
64.5
Context
100.0
Quality
66.4

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Points minus expected — Points 11; xPts 17.2. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.94; xG against 1.39. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
  • Goals scored / match — Eredivisie 2026-2027: 1.92 goals per team/match, 81 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.

Each signal belongs to one category. Categories sum to All signals; stories combine related evidence across categories.

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NEC Nijmegen Points below expected −6.2 11/11 covered matches · current leagues Forecast64
Forecast NEC Nijmegen −6.2 Points below expected 11/11 covered matches · current leagues Points11.0xPts17.2

The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.

Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 11; xPts 17.2. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.

Insight Score 64/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
56.4
Recency
96.8
Context
40.0
Quality
59.1

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

11/11 covered matches · current leagues

Points
11.0
xPts
17.2

Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 9.

Full club analysis →
NEC Nijmegen Goals conceded away per match 2.0 Last 7 recorded away matches Scores45
Scores NEC Nijmegen 2.0 Goals conceded away per match Last 7 recorded away matches Goals conceded · W/D/L colours

An away-only conceding average that meets the descriptive threshold. Home results are excluded from this club window; the league reference includes both venues and does not adjust opposition.

Recorded scores · away only · Last 7 recorded away matches · 2026-08-04 → 2026-10-10 UTC. Eredivisie 2026-2027: 1.92 goals per team/match, 81 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-18 UTC. League reference includes home and away games; this club window is away only. Context only, without opponent adjustment.

Insight Score 45/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
2.5
Recency
74.1
Context
40.0
Quality
87.5

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Last 7 recorded away matches

Oldest → newest · scores from NEC Nijmegen’s perspective.

Date (UTC)OpponentGF–GA
2026-08-04Olympiakos PiraeusA0–0D
2026-08-15Willem IIA4–1W
2026-08-25Bodo/GlimtA0–3L
2026-08-29PEC ZwolleA3–1W
2026-09-12CambuurA0–3L
2026-09-17JuventusA0–5L
2026-10-10AjaxA1–1D
Full club analysis →
NEC Nijmegen Goals conceded per match 2.2 Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Scores56
Scores NEC Nijmegen 2.2 Goals conceded per match Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals conceded · W/D/L colours

This conceding average meets the high-goals signal threshold. Its deviation from the league reference determines its editorial interest; the threshold alone does not establish a defensive concern.

Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-25 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Eredivisie 2026-2027: 1.92 goals per team/match, 81 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.

Insight Score 56/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
9.9
Recency
96.8
Context
40.0
Quality
100.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions

Oldest → newest · scores from NEC Nijmegen’s perspective.

Date (UTC)OpponentGF–GA
2026-08-25Bodo/GlimtA0–3L
2026-08-29PEC ZwolleA3–1W
2026-09-05FeyenoordH1–3L
2026-09-08ExcelsiorH2–2D
2026-09-12CambuurA0–3L
2026-09-17JuventusA0–5L
2026-09-20GO Ahead EaglesH1–1D
2026-10-10AjaxA1–1D
2026-10-15Levski SofiaH1–1D
2026-10-18Fortuna SittardH2–2D
Full club analysis →
NEC Nijmegen Both teams scored 70% Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Scores53
Scores NEC Nijmegen 70% Both teams scored Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Both teams have scored regularly in this recorded window. It describes past scorelines, rather than the probability for the next match.

Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-25 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Eredivisie 2026-2027: 1.92 goals per team/match, 81 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.

Insight Score 53/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
3.2
Recency
96.8
Context
40.0
Quality
100.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions

Oldest → newest · scores from NEC Nijmegen’s perspective. Event: Both teams scored.

Date (UTC)OpponentGF–GAEvent
2026-08-25Bodo/GlimtA0–3LNo
2026-08-29PEC ZwolleA3–1WYes
2026-09-05FeyenoordH1–3LYes
2026-09-08ExcelsiorH2–2DYes
2026-09-12CambuurA0–3LNo
2026-09-17JuventusA0–5LNo
2026-09-20GO Ahead EaglesH1–1DYes
2026-10-10AjaxA1–1DYes
2026-10-15Levski SofiaH1–1DYes
2026-10-18Fortuna SittardH2–2DYes
Full club analysis →
NEC Nijmegen xG difference per match +0.55 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG29
Observed xG NEC Nijmegen +0.55 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.94xG against1.39

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.94; xG against 1.39. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 29/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
36.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.94
xG against
1.39

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →

Showing 1–5 of 5 signals

About these insights
A little context goes a long way

Read the signal. Keep the context.

Insights describe what is recorded. Use club and match analysis to explore what comes next.

Insight Score · experimental editorial interest. This version uses 0.35D + 0.25R + 0.20C + 0.20Q. D measures heuristic deviation, R observation recency, C breadth of evidence families and Q data quality. These starting weights are uncalibrated. It is neither team strength, win probability, statistical significance nor forecast confidence. Related result signals share one family; different sources are not automatically statistically independent. Unknown dates receive zero recency; unknown xG coverage limits its quality component. League averages are context references, not opponent-adjusted estimates.

01

Check the window

Result signals use the last 10 recorded matches; away signals use the last 8 away matches. At least 5 are required. Missing and special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound.

02

Read the chart

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored or conceded, capped at 6; zero keeps a marker. Teal / amber / red means win / draw / loss. Faded bars mean the event did not happen. Open the evidence for full scores.

03

Separate the sources

xG uses observed Playing style averages before the next or latest league fixture; coverage can differ between inputs. xPts comes from stored LOAD90 forecasts on identical covered games, including labelled historical reconstructions.

Types alternate for variety. Values are ordered within their own metric, without a combined ranking. These descriptive signals do not change the LOAD90 forecast.

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