Football / The bigger picture

Insights.

Go beyond the result. Follow the patterns. See the evidence.

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Competition selects current clubs. Result windows include all recorded competitions; points comparisons use covered current-league matches.

League insights

Primeira Liga · 3 signals · 1 clubs in this view

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Automatically selected connections · one story per club · experimental Insight Score orders stories, not teams.

AroucaPoints ahead. Chance balance tells another story.Insight Score47/100

Points exceed the stored forecasts, while the observed xG profile has no positive balance. Results and chances tell different stories; this does not establish that a reversal is due.

Points minus expected8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-11 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
+3.4
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
−0.07
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 47/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
39.2
Recency
38.3
Context
80.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Points minus expected — Points 14; xPts 10.6. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.22; xG against 1.29. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Each signal belongs to one category. Categories sum to All signals; stories combine related evidence across categories.

All signals3 signals · 1 clubs

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Arouca Goals conceded per match 0.9 Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Scores50
Scores Arouca 0.9 Goals conceded per match Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals conceded · W/D/L colours

This conceding average meets the low-goals signal threshold. Compare it with the league reference; opponent strength and chance quality are not adjusted.

Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-11 UTC. Primeira Liga 2026-2027: 1.38 goals per team/match, 72 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.

Insight Score 50/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
19.1
Recency
76.6
Context
40.0
Quality
80.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions

Oldest → newest · scores from Arouca’s perspective.

Date (UTC)OpponentGF–GA
2026-08-08GuimaraesA1–0W
2026-08-16MoreirenseH4–0W
2026-08-23FC PortoA0–2L
2026-08-29MaritimoH2–1W
2026-09-07EstorilA0–0D
2026-09-13Santa ClaraH1–2L
2026-09-19Sporting CPA2–2D
2026-10-11EstrelaH1–0W
Full club analysis →
Arouca Clean sheets 4 Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Scores58
Scores Arouca 4 Clean sheets Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet

Matches without conceding stand out in the recent results. Clean sheets count outcomes; they do not measure the quality of chances allowed.

Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-11 UTC. Primeira Liga 2026-2027: 1.38 goals per team/match, 72 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.

Insight Score 58/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
42.3
Recency
76.6
Context
40.0
Quality
80.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions

Oldest → newest · scores from Arouca’s perspective. Event: Clean sheet.

Date (UTC)OpponentGF–GAEvent
2026-08-08GuimaraesA1–0WYes
2026-08-16MoreirenseH4–0WYes
2026-08-23FC PortoA0–2LNo
2026-08-29MaritimoH2–1WNo
2026-09-07EstorilA0–0DYes
2026-09-13Santa ClaraH1–2LNo
2026-09-19Sporting CPA2–2DNo
2026-10-11EstrelaH1–0WYes
Full club analysis →
Arouca Points above expected +3.4 8/8 covered matches · current leagues Forecast49
Forecast Arouca +3.4 Points above expected 8/8 covered matches · current leagues Points14.0xPts10.6

Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.

Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-11 UTC. Points 14; xPts 10.6. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.

Insight Score 49/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
39.2
Recency
76.6
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

8/8 covered matches · current leagues

Points
14.0
xPts
10.6

Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 0; reconstructed: 8.

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Showing 1–3 of 3 signals

About these insights
A little context goes a long way

Read the signal. Keep the context.

Insights describe what is recorded. Use club and match analysis to explore what comes next.

Insight Score · experimental editorial interest. This version uses 0.35D + 0.25R + 0.20C + 0.20Q. D measures heuristic deviation, R observation recency, C breadth of evidence families and Q data quality. These starting weights are uncalibrated. It is neither team strength, win probability, statistical significance nor forecast confidence. Related result signals share one family; different sources are not automatically statistically independent. Unknown dates receive zero recency; unknown xG coverage limits its quality component. League averages are context references, not opponent-adjusted estimates.

01

Check the window

Result signals use the last 10 recorded matches; away signals use the last 8 away matches. At least 5 are required. Missing and special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound.

02

Read the chart

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored or conceded, capped at 6; zero keeps a marker. Teal / amber / red means win / draw / loss. Faded bars mean the event did not happen. Open the evidence for full scores.

03

Separate the sources

xG uses observed Playing style averages before the next or latest league fixture; coverage can differ between inputs. xPts comes from stored LOAD90 forecasts on identical covered games, including labelled historical reconstructions.

Types alternate for variety. Values are ordered within their own metric, without a combined ranking. These descriptive signals do not change the LOAD90 forecast.

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