1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
1899 Hoffenheim were slight favourites.
1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1.FC Köln. 1.FC Köln had 105 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 105 and had to travel 232 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel232 kmRest days105 · 105Matches / 14d0 · 0
1.FC Köln31%
Draw24%
1899 Hoffenheim44%
1.FC Köln30%
Draw26%
1899 Hoffenheim44%
1.FC Köln32%
Draw25%
1899 Hoffenheim43%
1.FC Köln25%
Draw23%
1899 Hoffenheim52%
1.FC Köln32%
Draw25%
1899 Hoffenheim43%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)
24°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 21 km/h
- Humidity 52%
Referee · GermanyFlorian Badstubner
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 75
Team strength
1.FC Köln
1899 Hoffenheim
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
49
36
AttackIn forecast
46
36
DefenceIn forecast
43
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Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1.FC Köln1899 Hoffenheim
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
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—
Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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—
Clean sheetsContext
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—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
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—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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—
Red cardsContext
—
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
100%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.00
ShotsContext
14.60
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
36%
On target shareContext
34%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
75%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.88
11.00
Shots allowedContext
9.90
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.00
BlocksContext
2.78
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
51%
Save rateContext
55%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
403
PassesContext
468
333
Accurate passesContext
383
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.79
8.10
FoulsContext
13.60
8.20
Fouls sufferedContext
7.90
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1.FC Köln
Rest105 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest105 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel232 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1.FC Köln |
1899 Hoffenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 105Bundesliga 2025-2026, 16 May | 105Bundesliga 2025-2026, 16 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 232 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
14G. Mensah
24L. Lochoshvili
22J. Simpson-Pusey
17A. Castro-Montes
23Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler
5T. Krauß
8Í. Jóhannesson
10S. El Mala
9R. Ache
29J. Thielmann
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
21A. Hajdari
5O. Kabak
34V. Coufal
14A. Daghim
7L. Avdullahu
18W. Burger
8P. Wimmer
20B. Conté
10A. Hložek
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1.FC Köln
Absences are shown before kick-off
1899 Hoffenheim
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1.FC Köln-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- 1899 Hoffenheim+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
1.FC Köln · Home
No home games yet this season.
1899 Hoffenheim · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 1.FC Köln wins3 draws3 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game1.13 – 1.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 21 Feb 20261.FC Köln2–21899 Hoffenheim
- 3 Oct 20251899 Hoffenheim0–11.FC Köln
- 11 Feb 20241899 Hoffenheim1–11.FC Köln
- 16 Sep 20231.FC Köln1–31899 Hoffenheim
- 22 Apr 20231899 Hoffenheim1–31.FC Köln
- 30 Oct 20221.FC Köln1–11899 Hoffenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1.FC Köln | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 58% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| 1.FC Köln | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1.FC Köln | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 12.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| 1.FC Köln | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.14 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 10.43 | 9.70 | 12.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.90 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Badstubner Germany · 75 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.41league 4.00
Red cards0.17league 0.00
Cards 5+29%league 0%
Fouls22.2league 27.0
Penalties0.28league 0.00
Home wins48%league 100%
1.FC Köln6 with this referee
Record0-1-5
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L22 Nov 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–40
- L15 Mar 24H · RB Leipzig1–52
- D3 Sep 23A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–13
- L6 Nov 22A · SC Freiburg0–21
- L1 Apr 22A · Union Berlin0–13
1899 Hoffenheim8 with this referee
Record3-2-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 1
- L7 Dec 25A · Borussia Dortmund0–22
- W1 Mar 25A · VfL Bochum1–01
- L31 Aug 24A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–33
- W12 May 24A · SV Darmstadt 986–00
- D4 Feb 24A · VfL Wolfsburg2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1.FC Köln1899 Hoffenheim1.FC Köln10 games · scored 16 · conceded 22
4
4
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
7
61-75
6
2
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
1
4
0-15
5
5
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
3
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
