Bundesliga Gameweek 20 Fri, Jan 30 2026 · 19:30 RheinEnergieSTADION, Köln
1.FC Köln
1–0 Full time · HT 1–0 xG 0.73 – 1.11
VfL Wolfsburg
  • L. Maina 29’
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Maina goal decides it for 1.FC Köln

1.FC Köln entered as favourites and won 1–0 through a Maina goal. 1.FC Köln won despite the lower xG; VfL Wolfsburg created the better chances (1.11 vs 0.73). On the chances created, VfL Wolfsburg deserved more: 1.6 expected points against the 0 points they took.

1.FC Köln ✓49%
Draw24%
VfL Wolfsburg28%

Model vs reality

1.FC Köln goals
1
Model 1.87 · xG 0.73
VfL Wolfsburg goals
0
Model 1.37 · xG 1.11
Total goals
1
Model 3.25 · xG 1.84
Score 1–0
7%
Most likely 1–1 (11%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 63%
Both scored
No
Model 64%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchL. Maina1.FC Köln · 1 goal
7.9
  • RefereeMartin Petersen
  • Coaches— · D. Bauer
  • VenueRheinEnergieSTADION
  • Table before kick-off1.FC Köln 10th · VfL Wolfsburg 12th

Timeline

  1. L. Maina 1–0Assist T. Krauß
    29’
  2. Half time · 1–0
  3. ⇄ A. DaghimFor Vinicius Souza
    46’
  4. ⇄ K. ShiogaiFor L. Majer
    46’
  5. R. AcheYellow card · Roughing
    58’
  6. C. EriksenYellow card · Tripping
    66’
  7. ⇄ Í. JóhannessonFor M. Bülter
    67’
  8. K. ShiogaiYellow card · Tripping
    71’
  9. ⇄ S. KumbediFor K. Fischer
    74’
  10. ⇄ J. LindstrømFor P. Wimmer
    74’
  11. ⇄ S. El MalaFor J. Kamiński
    75’
  12. ⇄ J. ThielmannFor L. Maina
    75’
  13. M. JenzYellow card
    80’
  14. ⇄ R. van den BergFor K. Lund
    86’
  15. ⇄ Y. NiangFor R. Ache
    86’
  16. Y. GerhardtYellow card · Roughing
    90’
  17. ⇄ A. ZehnterFor Y. Gerhardt
    90+1’
  18. Full time · 1–0

Team stats

1.FC Köln14 shots · 10 in box, 4 outside
VfL Wolfsburg14 shots · 9 in box, 5 outside
1.FC KölnVfL Wolfsburg
41% Possession 59%
0.73 Expected goals (xG) 1.11
1.04 Expected points (xPts) 1.65
14 Shots 14
2 Shots on target 3
7 Shots off target 8
5 Blocked shots 3
10 Shots inside the box 9
4 Shots outside the box 5
316 Passes 466
73% Pass accuracy 79%
3 Corners 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
8 Fouls 16
2 Offsides 3
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
6.92 Team rating 6.73

Line-ups

1.FC Köln 4-4-2

16.9 M. Schwäbe(G)
327.2 K. Lund ↓86’ 396.3 C. Özkacar 286.9 S. Sebulonsen 177.2 A. Castro-Montes
166.9 J. Kamiński ↓75’ 57.2 T. Krauß A 66.7 E. Martel 377.9★ L. Maina ↓75’
306.9 M. Bülter ↓67’ 96.6 R. Ache ↓86’
  • 1M. Schwäbe (G)6.9
  • 32K. Lund↓86’7.2
  • 39C. Özkacar6.3
  • 28S. Sebulonsen6.9
  • 17A. Castro-Montes7.2
  • 16J. Kamiński↓75’6.9
  • 5T. KraußA7.2
  • 6E. Martel6.7
  • 37L. Maina ★↓75’7.9
  • 30M. Bülter↓67’6.9
  • 9R. Ache↓86’6.6

Substitutes used

  • 18Í. Jóhannesson↑67’6.3
  • 13S. El Mala↑75’6.3
  • 29J. Thielmann↑75’6.5
  • 33R. van den Berg↑86’6.3
  • 38Y. Niang↑86’6.5

Unused: R. Zieler, D. Huseinbašić, G. Waldschmidt, Fynn Schenten

VfL Wolfsburg 4-2-3-1

16.7 K. Grabara(G)
316.2 Y. Gerhardt ↓90’ 156.5 M. Jenz 37.3 D. Vavro 27.2 K. Fischer ↓74’
277.0 M. Arnold 56.7 Vinicius Souza ↓46’
396.6 P. Wimmer ↓74’ 106.5 L. Majer ↓46’ 246.9 C. Eriksen
176.6 D. Pejčinović
  • 1K. Grabara (G)6.7
  • 31Y. Gerhardt↓90’6.2
  • 15M. Jenz6.5
  • 3D. Vavro7.3
  • 2K. Fischer↓74’7.2
  • 27M. Arnold7.0
  • 5Vinicius Souza↓46’6.7
  • 39P. Wimmer↓74’6.6
  • 10L. Majer↓46’6.5
  • 24C. Eriksen6.9
  • 17D. Pejčinović6.6

Substitutes used

  • 11A. Daghim↑46’6.9
  • 7K. Shiogai↑46’6.2
  • 26S. Kumbedi↑74’6.3
  • 19J. Lindstrøm↑74’6.6
  • 25A. Zehnter↑90’

Unused: M. Müller, K. Koulierakis, M. Svanberg, Pharell Hensel

Coach: D. Bauer

Player stats

Top rated
L. Maina1.FC Köln7.9
2nd
D. VavroVfL Wolfsburg7.3
3rd
K. Lund1.FC Köln7.2

1.FC Köln

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Schwäbe G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 63% 54 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
K. Lund D 86 0 0 2 (0) 2 57% 21 5 3 1/2 1/4 7.2
C. Özkacar D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 85% 39 1 1 0/1 0/0 6.3
S. Sebulonsen D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 77% 39 2 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
A. Castro-Montes M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 60% 25 3 1 1/4 2/2 7.2
J. Kamiński M 75 0 0 0 (0) 0 95% 21 1 0 0/1 1/1 6.9
T. Krauß M 90 0 1 0 (0) 2 83% 24 3 1 0/1 2/2 7.2
E. Martel M 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 79% 34 2 0 0/0 0/1 6.7
L. Maina M 75 1 0 2 (1) 1 100% 14 1 0 0/2 1/0 7.9
M. Bülter F 67 0 0 1 (0) 2 62% 13 0 0 0/0 0/2 6.9
R. Ache F 86 0 0 2 (1) 0 46% 13 1 0 0/0 1/2 6.6
Í. Jóhannesson M 23 0 0 0 (0) 1 71% 7 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
S. El Mala F 15 0 0 1 (0) 0 75% 4 0 0 1/1 0/0 6.3
J. Thielmann M 15 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 4 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
R. van den Berg D 4 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
Y. Niang 4 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 4 0 0 0/1 0/0 6.5

VfL Wolfsburg

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
K. Grabara G 90 0 0 1 sv 0 90% 29 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
Y. Gerhardt M 90 0 0 1 (0) 2 76% 42 1 1 0/1 4/2 6.2
M. Jenz D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 89% 72 0 0 0/0 2/0 6.5
D. Vavro D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 83% 58 2 1 0/0 0/1 7.3
K. Fischer D 74 0 0 0 (0) 0 64% 25 5 1 0/0 1/0 7.2
M. Arnold M 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 85% 74 0 0 0/0 0/1 7.0
Vinicius Souza M 46 0 0 0 (0) 0 87% 15 1 0 0/0 2/0 6.7
P. Wimmer M 74 0 0 2 (0) 0 59% 29 6 0 3/6 0/0 6.6
L. Majer M 46 0 0 0 (0) 0 83% 12 1 1 0/1 2/2 6.5
C. Eriksen M 90 0 0 2 (0) 2 88% 48 2 0 0/1 1/1 6.9
D. Pejčinović F 90 0 0 1 (1) 1 56% 18 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.6
A. Daghim F 44 0 0 2 (1) 2 56% 18 2 0 1/4 2/1 6.9
K. Shiogai F 44 0 0 2 (1) 0 67% 9 0 0 1/1 1/0 6.2
S. Kumbedi D 16 0 0 0 (0) 1 86% 7 0 0 0/1 1/0 6.3
J. Lindstrøm M 16 0 0 0 (0) 0 70% 10 1 0 2/2 0/0 6.6
A. Zehnter M 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.