1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
1.FC Köln
10th · 20 pts · 19 played
LDLWL
1–0Full time
VfL Wolfsburg
12th · 19 pts · 19 played
LLWDL
Our take
1.FC Köln were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards 1.FC Köln. 1.FC Köln had 5.1 days of rest, VfL Wolfsburg 6.2 and had to travel 312 km.
Away travel312 kmRest days5.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
1.FC Köln49%
Draw24%
VfL Wolfsburg28%
1.FC Köln41%
Draw27%
VfL Wolfsburg32%
1.FC Köln48%
Draw24%
VfL Wolfsburg28%
1.FC Köln41%
Draw24%
VfL Wolfsburg35%
1.FC Köln48%
Draw24%
VfL Wolfsburg28%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyMartin Petersen
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 54
Team strength
1.FC KölnVfL Wolfsburg
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
36
AttackIn forecast
50
36
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1.FC KölnVfL Wolfsburg
1.47
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.47
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.16
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
84%
Scored inContext
84%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
5%
12.32
ShotsContext
11.26
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
36%
On target shareContext
36%
8.06
Shots in the boxContext
7.21
61%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.21
OffsidesContext
1.91
13.74
Shots allowedContext
14.21
5.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.26
4.28
BlocksContext
3.78
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
67%
Save rateContext
62%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
408
PassesContext
413
334
Accurate passesContext
332
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.78
8.11
FoulsContext
10.42
9.79
Fouls sufferedContext
9.47
1.68
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.89
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
80%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.20
ShotsContext
10.30
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
36%
On target shareContext
44%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
61%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.40
Shots allowedContext
14.10
5.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.44
BlocksContext
3.89
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
61%
Save rateContext
58%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
441
PassesContext
426
365
Accurate passesContext
343
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.77
7.30
FoulsContext
9.80
8.30
Fouls sufferedContext
8.20
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1.FC Köln
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km666 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel312 km645 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1.FC Köln |
VfL Wolfsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 312 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 666 km | 645 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
32K. Lund
39C. Özkacar
28S. Sebulonsen
17A. Castro-Montes
16J. Kamiński
5T. Krauß
6E. Martel
37L. Maina
30M. Bülter
9R. Ache
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
31Y. Gerhardt
15M. Jenz
3D. Vavro
2K. Fischer
27M. Arnold
5Vinicius Souza
39P. Wimmer
10L. Majer
24C. Eriksen
17D. Pejčinović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1.FC Köln
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfL Wolfsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1.FC Köln+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- VfL Wolfsburg-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
1.FC Köln · Home
1.22points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-4
- Scored
- 1.89
- Conceded
- 1.67
VfL Wolfsburg · Away
1.11points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-5
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.22
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1.FC Köln | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 AW 4–1 H | L 3–4 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–3 H | L 1–8 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 3–4 H | D 1–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 4–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 1–0 A | L 2–3 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 19 of 54 · 1.06 per game | 18 of 54 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 1.FC Köln wins2 draws3 VfL Wolfsburg wins
Goals per game1.71 – 1.86
Over 2.557%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets0% · 29%
- 13 Sep 2025VfL Wolfsburg3–31.FC Köln
- 27 Jan 2024VfL Wolfsburg1–11.FC Köln
- 26 Aug 20231.FC Köln1–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 25 Feb 20231.FC Köln0–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 3 Sep 2022VfL Wolfsburg2–41.FC Köln
- 7 May 20221.FC Köln0–1VfL Wolfsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1.FC Köln | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.47 | 1.47 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 2.16 | |
| Match goals | 3.16 | 3.63 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 68% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 53% | |
| Both teams scored | 74% | 79% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 5% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 16% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| 1.FC Köln | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 4.20 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 100% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1.FC Köln | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.28 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.22 | 7.39 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 11.17 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 12/18 | 72% 13/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 9/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 7/18 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.74 | 1.95 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 1.74 | |
| Match total | 3.85 | 3.69 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 11/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 7/19 | 42% 8/19 | |
| 1.FC Köln | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 7.56 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 11.45 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Petersen Germany · 54 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.30league 3.72
Red cards0.19league 0.18
Cards 5+50%league 38%
Fouls24.0league 20.9
Penalties0.22league 0.33
Home wins44%league 44%
1.FC Köln6 with this referee
Record1-3-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D4 Feb 23H · RB Leipzig0–03
- D21 Aug 22A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–11
- W9 Apr 22H · FSV Mainz 053–22
- L30 Oct 21A · Borussia Dortmund0–23
- D25 Sep 21A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–13
VfL Wolfsburg8 with this referee
Record3-3-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 3
- W25 Oct 25A · Hamburger SV1–05
- L15 Mar 25A · FC Augsburg0–12
- W30 Nov 24A · RB Leipzig5–11
- D17 Feb 24H · Borussia Dortmund1–13
- D1 Apr 23H · FC Augsburg2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1.FC Köln19 games · scored 28 · conceded 32
4
3
0-15
4
4
16-30
2
8
31-45
6
2
46-60
8
61-75
12
7
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg19 games · scored 28 · conceded 41
8
6
0-15
5
5
16-30
2
5
31-45
4
6
46-60
5
8
61-75
4
11
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
5
31-45
3
1
46-60
6
61-75
5
3
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 17 · conceded 25
5
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
2
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
