1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
1.FC Köln were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards 1.FC Köln. 1.FC Köln had 7.9 days of rest, Werder Bremen 7.1 and had to travel 270 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel270 kmRest days7.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
1.FC Köln46%
Draw24%
Werder Bremen30%
1.FC Köln41%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen33%
1.FC Köln44%
Draw25%
Werder Bremen31%
1.FC Köln38%
Draw25%
Werder Bremen37%
1.FC Köln46%
Draw24%
Werder Bremen30%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)
21°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 57%
Referee · GermanyFlorian Exner
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 30
Team strength
1.FC Köln
Werder Bremen
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
36
AttackIn forecast
56
36
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1.FC KölnWerder Bremen
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
3.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
2.41
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
2.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.94
-0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+1.25
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
18.00
ShotsContext
10.50
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
31%
On target shareContext
48%
13.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
75%
Box shareContext
54%
11%
ConversionContext
19%
—
OffsidesContext
2.50
18.50
Shots allowedContext
19.00
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
5.00
BlocksContext
7.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
50%
Save rateContext
40%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
361
PassesContext
360
297
Accurate passesContext
290
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.97
8.50
FoulsContext
14.50
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
2.00
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.79
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
100%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.20
ShotsContext
10.90
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
36%
On target shareContext
39%
11.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.89
75%
Box shareContext
54%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.78
13.10
Shots allowedContext
15.70
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.50
BlocksContext
5.10
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
50%
Save rateContext
69%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
394
PassesContext
417
326
Accurate passesContext
340
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.92
7.70
FoulsContext
10.00
7.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1.FC Köln
WL
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km575 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 57 · 3 pts vs 2.3 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1.FC Köln |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 4 Sep | 7.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 270 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 575 km | 1,138 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
14G. Mensah
24L. Lochoshvili
22J. Simpson-Pusey
17A. Castro-Montes
5T. Krauß
6E. Skhiri
30M. Bülter
47M. Moore
37L. Maina
27T. Dallinga
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
1K. Hein(G)
2O. Deman
32M. Friedl
5A. Pieper
13Arthur
15L. Reis
44Y. Regeer
17M. Grüll
20Chuky
18E. Dinkçi
10N. Füllkrug
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1.FC Köln
Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1.FC Köln+1.5 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Werder Bremen-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
1.FC Köln · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Werder Bremen · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 1.FC Köln wins2 draws2 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game2.17 – 1.17
Over 2.550%
Both scored83%
Clean sheets0% · 17%
- 12 Apr 20261.FC Köln3–1Werder Bremen
- 29 Nov 2025Werder Bremen1–11.FC Köln
- 16 Feb 20241.FC Köln0–1Werder Bremen
- 23 Sep 2023Werder Bremen2–11.FC Köln
- 20 May 2023Werder Bremen1–11.FC Köln
- 21 Jan 20231.FC Köln7–1Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1.FC Köln | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 4.50 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| 1.FC Köln | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.30 | 3.00 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1.FC Köln | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.50 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 15.50 | 10.00 | 11.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 1.50 | 3.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| 1.FC Köln | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 6.78 | |
| Match total | 11.38 | 11.22 | 11.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 100% 9/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Exner Germany · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.57league 3.21
Red cards0.20league 0.13
Cards 5+47%league 21%
Fouls22.2league 22.6
Penalties0.37league 0.08
Home wins40%league 54%
1.FC Köln1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D5 Apr 26A · Eintracht Frankfurt2–22
Werder Bremen2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 Apr 26H · Hamburger SV3–14
- W21 Dec 24H · Union Berlin4–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1.FC Köln2 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Werder Bremen2 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 18 · conceded 25
4
4
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
9
61-75
7
3
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
