1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 48). 1899 Hoffenheim had 5.9 days of rest, RB Leipzig 7 and had to travel 340 km.
Away travel340 kmRest days5.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
1899 Hoffenheim30%
Draw25%
RB Leipzig44%
1899 Hoffenheim30%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig43%
1899 Hoffenheim30%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig44%
1899 Hoffenheim24%
Draw24%
RB Leipzig52%
1899 Hoffenheim30%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig44%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sinsheim)
No weather data yet
RefereePatrick Ittrich
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 36
Team strength
1899 Hoffenheim
RB Leipzig
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
49
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
46
AttackIn forecast
76
43
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1899 HoffenheimRB Leipzig
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.11
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
89%
Scored inContext
89%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
12.56
ShotsContext
15.11
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.11
39%
On target shareContext
34%
9.38
Shots in the boxContext
10.44
72%
Box shareContext
69%
16%
ConversionContext
14%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.40
10.78
Shots allowedContext
14.11
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
3.11
BlocksContext
4.78
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
70%
Save rateContext
70%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
438
PassesContext
449
352
Accurate passesContext
375
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.04
15.11
FoulsContext
10.33
9.67
Fouls sufferedContext
10.78
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
1.56
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.90
ShotsContext
14.40
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
39%
On target shareContext
35%
8.78
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
71%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.00
Shots allowedContext
14.10
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.00
BlocksContext
4.50
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
70%
Save rateContext
67%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
429
PassesContext
450
345
Accurate passesContext
378
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.03
14.50
FoulsContext
10.20
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km754 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
RB Leipzig
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel340 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1899 Hoffenheim |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 340 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 754 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.2 | 15 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
21A. Hajdari
2R. Hranáč
29B. Toure
6G. Prömel
7L. Avdullahu
18W. Burger
34V. Coufal
27A. Kramarić
19T. Lemperle
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
5E. Bitshiabu
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
13N. Seiwald
20F. Ouédraogo
7A. Nusa
40Rômulo
49Y. Diomande
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1899 Hoffenheim
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
RB Leipzig
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1899 Hoffenheim+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- RB Leipzig+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
1899 Hoffenheim · Home
0.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.25
RB Leipzig · Away
2.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | 1899 Hoffenheim | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–4 H | L 0–6 A |
| Points | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game | 9 of 12 · 2.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 1899 Hoffenheim wins1 draws5 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game1.25 – 2.13
Over 2.563%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 5 Apr 2025RB Leipzig3–11899 Hoffenheim
- 23 Nov 20241899 Hoffenheim4–3RB Leipzig
- 3 May 20241899 Hoffenheim1–1RB Leipzig
- 16 Dec 2023RB Leipzig3–11899 Hoffenheim
- 29 Apr 2023RB Leipzig1–01899 Hoffenheim
- 5 Nov 20221899 Hoffenheim1–3RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1899 Hoffenheim | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 3.22 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 56% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 44% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 3.22 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 56% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 44% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1899 Hoffenheim | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 11.11 | 10.12 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.89 | 1.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 3.22 | 3.78 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 10.40 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.50 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Patrick Ittrich 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.83league 4.15
Red cards0.06league 0.22
Cards 5+33%league 41%
Fouls26.4league 22.5
Penalties0.31league 0.35
Home wins50%league 43%
1899 Hoffenheim3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Feb 23A · FC Augsburg0–13
- W13 Aug 22H · VfL Bochum3–21
- D18 Sep 21A · Arminia Bielefeld0–01
RB Leipzig3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W12 Nov 23H · SC Freiburg3–12
- L17 Sep 22A · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–32
- W20 Feb 22A · Hertha BSC6–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1899 Hoffenheim9 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
RB Leipzig9 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 18 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 13
5
0-15
2
4
16-30
7
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
