AC Milan vs Cagliari – 24 May 2026

Serie A Gameweek 38 Sun, May 24 · 19:45 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

AC Milan 4th · 70 pts · 37 played WDLLW

1–2Full time

Cagliari 16th · 40 pts · 37 played LWDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AC Milan were slight favourites.

AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cagliari. AC Milan had 7.4 days of rest, Cagliari 7 and had to travel 693 km.

Away travel693 kmRest days7.4 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1

AC Milan57%

Draw25%

Cagliari17%

Expected goals 1.67 – 0.81

AC Milan67%

Draw20%

Cagliari13%

Expected goals 2.14 – 0.83

AC Milan57%

Draw25%

Cagliari17%

Expected goals 1.67 – 0.81

AC Milan50%

Draw28%

Cagliari22%

Expected goals 1.49 – 0.90

AC Milan59%

Draw24%

Cagliari17%

Expected goals 1.82 – 0.89

Over 2.5 45% Both score 45% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMarco Guida

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 87

Team strength

AC Milan

Cagliari

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 33

72 AttackIn forecast 31

69 DefenceIn forecast 31

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Cagliari

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AC Milan

Cagliari

1.41 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.03

0.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.41

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 0.91

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

81% Scored inContext 62%

41% Clean sheetsContext 22%

12.68 ShotsContext 10.19

4.39 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

34% On target shareContext 32%

8.63 Shots in the boxContext 6.49

66% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.30

10.89 Shots allowedContext 12.43

3.69 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.59

3.26 BlocksContext 3.77

2.97 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

80% Save rateContext 72%

52% PossessionIn forecast 46%

479 PassesContext 384

419 Accurate passesContext 312

88% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.76

9.97 FoulsContext 13.22

11.35 Fouls sufferedContext 14.38

1.59 Yellow cardsContext 2.11

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 37 and 37 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

1.05 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

50% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.00 ShotsContext 10.80

3.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.22

29% On target shareContext 27%

6.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

58% Box shareContext 64%

8% ConversionContext 8%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.63

11.20 Shots allowedContext 10.60

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

2.90 BlocksContext 3.10

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

71% Save rateContext 69%

51% PossessionIn forecast 45%

460 PassesContext 372

399 Accurate passesContext 302

87% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.69

10.70 FoulsContext 10.30

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AC Milan

Rest7.4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km239 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Cagliari

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel693 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AC Milan	Cagliari
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.4Serie A 2025-2026, 17 May	7Serie A 2025-2026, 17 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	693 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	239 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	91	90

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AC Milan Confirmed XI

3-5-2

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 46M. Gabbia 23O. Tomori

33D. Bartesaghi 12A. Rabiot 30A. Jashari 19Y. Fofana 56A. Saelemaekers

18C. Nkunku 7S. Giménez

Cagliari Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1E. Caprile(G)

15J. Rodríguez 26Y. Mina 32Zé Pedro

33A. Obert 14A. Deiola 10G. Gaetano 8M. Adopo 28G. Zappa

94S. Esposito 29G. Borrelli

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AC Milan Absences are shown before kick-off

Cagliari Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AC Milan+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Cagliari+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

AC Milan · Home 1.78points per game · 18 home games

W-D-L: 9-5-4
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.06

Cagliari · Away 0.83points per game · 18 away games

W-D-L: 3-6-9
Scored: 0.89
Conceded: 1.61

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	AC Milan	Cagliari
Genoa	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H	L 0–3 AD 3–3 H
Atalanta	L 2–3 HD 1–1 A	W 3–2 HL 1–2 A
Sassuolo	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Juventus	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A
Verona	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	W 4–0 HD 2–2 A
Udinese	L 0–3 HW 3–0 A	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A
Napoli	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H	L 0–1 HL 0–1 A
Torino	W 3–2 HW 3–2 A	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Lazio	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A
Inter	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A	L 0–3 AL 0–2 H
Cremonese	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H	W 1–0 HD 2–2 A
Parma	L 0–1 HD 2–2 A	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H
Como	D 1–1 HW 3–1 A	L 1–2 HD 0–0 A
Pisa	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H	L 1–3 AD 2–2 H
Bologna	W 3–0 AW 1–0 H	D 0–0 AL 0–2 H
AS Roma	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	L 0–2 AW 1–0 H
Lecce	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A	L 0–2 HW 2–1 A
Fiorentina	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
Points	67 of 108 · 1.86 per game	40 of 108 · 1.11 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

5 AC Milan wins2 draws0 Cagliari wins

Goals per game2.57 – 1.00 Over 2.557% Both scored71% Clean sheets29% · 0%

2 Jan 2026Cagliari0–1AC Milan
11 Jan 2025AC Milan1–1Cagliari
9 Nov 2024Cagliari3–3AC Milan
11 May 2024AC Milan5–1Cagliari
27 Sep 2023Cagliari1–3AC Milan
19 Mar 2022Cagliari0–1AC Milan

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AC Milan	Cagliari	Forecast
Scored per game	1.41	1.03
Conceded per game	0.89	1.41
Match goals	2.30	2.43	2.47
Over 1.5	65%	76%
Over 2.5	43%	49%	45%
Over 3.5	19%	19%
Both teams scored	46%	49%	45%
Clean sheets	41%	22%
Failed to score	19%	38%
Games	37	37

	AC Milan	Cagliari	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	0.90
Conceded per game	1.30	1.60
Match goals	2.20	2.50	2.47
Over 1.5	50%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	45%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	45%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AC Milan	Cagliari	League
Corners
Corners won	4.26	3.83
Corners conceded	4.15	4.63
Match total	8.41	8.46	8.64
Over 8.5	47% 16/34	46% 16/35
Over 9.5	32% 11/34	23% 8/35
Over 10.5	26% 9/34	17% 6/35
Cards
Cards	1.73	2.16
Opponent cards	2.14	1.70
Match total	3.87	3.86	3.85
Over 3.5	57% 21/37	57% 21/37
Over 4.5	35% 13/37	35% 13/37

	AC Milan	Cagliari	League
Corners
Corners won	2.90	4.20
Corners conceded	3.40	3.70
Match total	6.30	7.90	8.64
Over 8.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.50
Opponent cards	2.50	1.20
Match total	4.40	2.70	3.85
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 87 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.90league 3.67

Red cards0.15league 0.19

Cards 5+39%league 34%

Fouls23.8league 24.6

Penalties0.34league 0.27

Home wins43%league 39%

AC Milan10 with this referee

Record6-2-2 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.7 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds1

L15 Mar 26A · Lazio0–11
W15 Jan 26A · Como3–10
W2 Nov 25H · AS Roma1–01
D5 Oct 25A · Juventus0–02
D15 Dec 24H · Genoa0–00

Cagliari3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

W24 Jan 26A · Fiorentina2–13
L22 Dec 24A · Venezia1–22
W5 Nov 23H · Genoa2–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.