AC Milan vs Juventus – 26 Apr 2026

Serie A Gameweek 34 Sun, Apr 26 · 19:45 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

AC Milan 3rd · 66 pts · 33 played LWLLW

0–0Full time

Juventus 4th · 63 pts · 33 played WDWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Juventus. AC Milan had 7.2 days of rest, Juventus 7 and had to travel 125 km.

Away travel125 kmRest days7.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

AC Milan35%

Draw28%

Juventus37%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.30

AC Milan41%

Draw27%

Juventus32%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.25

AC Milan34%

Draw28%

Juventus38%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.31

AC Milan28%

Draw27%

Juventus44%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.46

AC Milan35%

Draw27%

Juventus38%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.38

Over 2.5 47% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalySimone Sozza

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.46
Matches 93

Team strength

AC Milan

Juventus

68 L90 StrengthIn forecast 72

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 64

72 AttackIn forecast 57

69 DefenceIn forecast 76

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Juventus

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AC Milan

Juventus

1.45 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.73

0.82 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.88

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.68

1.02 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

85% Scored inContext 82%

42% Clean sheetsContext 42%

13.00 ShotsContext 15.91

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.82

33% On target shareContext 37%

9.16 Shots in the boxContext 10.24

68% Box shareContext 64%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.07 OffsidesContext 2.12

10.91 Shots allowedContext 10.27

3.65 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.87

3.35 BlocksContext 3.19

3.03 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.21

82% Save rateContext 75%

53% PossessionIn forecast 57%

487 PassesContext 514

427 Accurate passesContext 446

88% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.95

9.55 FoulsContext 12.00

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70

1.45 Yellow cardsContext 1.36

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.99

0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

60% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.40 ShotsContext 16.00

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

28% On target shareContext 33%

8.89 Shots in the boxContext 12.11

68% Box shareContext 69%

8% ConversionContext 12%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.43

11.00 Shots allowedContext 12.30

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

3.20 BlocksContext 3.70

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

77% Save rateContext 72%

56% PossessionIn forecast 54%

518 PassesContext 480

459 Accurate passesContext 407

88% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.98

9.50 FoulsContext 11.20

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 8.70

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AC Milan

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km282 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Juventus

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel125 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AC Milan	Juventus
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Apr	7Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	125 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	282 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AC Milan Confirmed XI

3-5-2

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 46M. Gabbia 23O. Tomori

33D. Bartesaghi 12A. Rabiot 14L. Modrić 19Y. Fofana 56A. Saelemaekers

10Rafael Leão 11C. Pulišić

Juventus Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Di Gregorio(G)

6L. Kelly 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu

27A. Cambiaso 19K. Thuram 5M. Locatelli 22W. McKennie

13J. Boga 7Francisco Conceição

30J. David

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AC Milan Absences are shown before kick-off

Juventus Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AC Milan+0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Juventus-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

AC Milan · Home 1.94points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 9-4-3
Scored: 1.38
Conceded: 1.00

Juventus · Away 1.69points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 8-3-5
Scored: 1.44
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	AC Milan	Juventus
Verona	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	D 1–1 A
Udinese	L 0–3 HW 3–0 A	W 1–0 AW 3–1 H
Napoli	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A
Torino	W 3–2 HW 3–2 A	D 0–0 H
Lazio	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A
Inter	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A	L 2–3 AW 4–3 H
Cremonese	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H	W 5–0 HW 2–1 A
Parma	L 0–1 HD 2–2 A	W 4–1 AW 2–0 H
Como	D 1–1 HW 3–1 A	L 0–2 HL 0–2 A
Pisa	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H	W 4–0 HW 2–0 A
Bologna	W 3–0 AW 1–0 H	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A
AS Roma	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	D 3–3 AW 2–1 H
Lecce	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A	D 1–1 H
Fiorentina	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 A
Genoa	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A
Cagliari	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H
Sassuolo	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 HW 3–0 A
Atalanta	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H
Points	65 of 96 · 2.03 per game	62 of 96 · 1.94 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 AC Milan wins5 draws2 Juventus wins

Goals per game0.44 – 0.44 Over 2.50% Both scored11% Clean sheets67% · 67%

5 Oct 2025Juventus0–0AC Milan
18 Jan 2025Juventus2–0AC Milan
23 Nov 2024AC Milan0–0Juventus
27 Apr 2024Juventus0–0AC Milan
22 Oct 2023AC Milan0–1Juventus
28 May 2023Juventus0–1AC Milan

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AC Milan	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	1.45	1.73
Conceded per game	0.82	0.88
Match goals	2.27	2.61	2.55
Over 1.5	64%	76%
Over 2.5	42%	42%	47%
Over 3.5	18%	24%
Both teams scored	45%	45%	53%
Clean sheets	42%	42%
Failed to score	15%	18%
Games	33	33

	AC Milan	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.80
Conceded per game	1.00	1.10
Match goals	2.00	2.90	2.55
Over 1.5	50%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	40%	47%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	40%	53%
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Failed to score	40%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AC Milan	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	5.13
Corners conceded	4.33	3.94
Match total	8.83	9.07	8.71
Over 8.5	53% 16/30	45% 14/31
Over 9.5	37% 11/30	35% 11/31
Over 10.5	30% 9/30	26% 8/31
Cards
Cards	1.58	1.42
Opponent cards	2.03	2.06
Match total	3.61	3.48	3.88
Over 3.5	52% 17/33	52% 17/33
Over 4.5	27% 9/33	33% 11/33

	AC Milan	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	5.20
Corners conceded	3.80	4.30
Match total	7.40	9.50	8.71
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.60
Match total	3.50	3.60	3.88
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 93 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.15league 3.71

Red cards0.14league 0.18

Cards 5+41%league 35%

Fouls24.9league 24.8

Penalties0.46league 0.29

Home wins40%league 40%

AC Milan6 with this referee

Record3-0-3 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.7 Pens for · against2 · 2

W23 Nov 25A · Inter1–02
L30 Mar 25A · Napoli1–21
L22 Feb 25A · Torino1–21
W11 May 24H · Cagliari5–12
L16 Sep 23A · Inter1–52

Juventus10 with this referee

Record4-4-2 Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 3

D1 Mar 26A · AS Roma3–30
W20 Dec 25H · AS Roma2–12
D27 Sep 25H · Atalanta1–10
L9 Mar 25H · Atalanta0–41
W9 Nov 24H · Torino2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.