ADO Den Haag
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Cambuur were the stronger side on L90 Strength (21 vs 13). Absences weigh more on Cambuur. ADO Den Haag had 7 days of rest, Cambuur 6.8 and had to travel.
Rest days7 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
ADO Den Haag37%
Draw25%
Cambuur39%
ADO Den Haag36%
Draw26%
Cambuur38%
ADO Den Haag36%
Draw24%
Cambuur40%
ADO Den Haag30%
Draw24%
Cambuur46%
ADO Den Haag37%
Draw24%
Cambuur39%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (‘s-Gravenhage)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 83
Team strength
ADO Den Haag
Cambuur
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
15
AttackIn forecast
22
18
DefenceIn forecast
23
7
Form indexContext
17
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCambuur
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ADO Den HaagCambuur
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.00
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
2.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.39
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
67%
Scored inContext
83%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
10.67
ShotsContext
12.50
3.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
30%
On target shareContext
36%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.83
52%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.67
17.33
Shots allowedContext
15.50
8.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.83
4.33
BlocksContext
4.00
5.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
69%
Save rateContext
55%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
415
PassesContext
387
340
Accurate passesContext
319
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.33
FoulsContext
11.67
10.17
Fouls sufferedContext
12.17
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
2.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
2.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.39
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
50%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
11.50
ShotsContext
15.38
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
26%
On target shareContext
33%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
53%
Box shareContext
67%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.88
15.00
Shots allowedContext
13.63
7.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.38
4.13
BlocksContext
3.38
4.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
66%
Save rateContext
59%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
422
PassesContext
422
344
Accurate passesContext
346
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.38
FoulsContext
12.88
10.88
Fouls sufferedContext
13.25
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
ADO Den Haag
LLDLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 7 · 1 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -3.1 vs expected
Cambuur
LLLDW
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—227 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 17 · 4 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| ADO Den Haag |
Cambuur |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 6.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 227 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.9 | 21.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
ADO Den Haag
Confirmed XI
1K. Nikiéma(G)
15M. Hokke
4M. Waem
3P. Mulder
5J. Jensen-Abbew
27N. Thomas
33M. Šín
25J. Kilo
17J. Hawkins
11E. Rottier
46Y. Eduardo
Cambuur
Confirmed XI
1T. Jansen(G)
28M. Costarelli
14B. van Duijl
4I. Baouf
2D. Bouah
8N. Souren
33M. Maertens
11I. Hamache
10Rafik El Arguioui
15F. Kvam
7S. Bouhoudane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences ADO Den Haag
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cambuur
Scores -0.05 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- ADO Den Haag+0.8 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Cambuur-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
ADO Den Haag · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 3.50
Cambuur · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | ADO Den Haag | Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| Twente | L 0–2 A | L 1–4 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 2–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Feyenoord | D 2–2 A | L 2–5 H |
| Points | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game | 0 of 9 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| ADO Den Haag | Cambuur | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 4.50 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| ADO Den Haag | Cambuur | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 4.50 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| ADO Den Haag | Cambuur | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.60 | 5.83 | |
| Match total | 11.60 | 9.66 | 10.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.17 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.67 | 2.83 | 2.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| ADO Den Haag | Cambuur | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.43 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 10.43 | 10.51 | 10.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.63 | 2.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 13% 1/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 83 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.41league 2.58
Red cards0.18league 0.05
Cards 5+30%league 13%
Fouls19.8league 20.4
Penalties0.18league 0.22
Home wins36%league 29%
ADO Den HaagNo previous matches with this referee.
Cambuur1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L7 Aug 26H · Excelsior0–40
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
ADO Den Haag6 games · scored 6 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
3
46-60
8
61-75
2
2
76-90
Cambuur6 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
2
0-15
2
5
16-30
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
ADO Den Haag8 games · scored 6 · conceded 19
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
9
61-75
2
2
76-90
Cambuur8 games · scored 10 · conceded 20
2
0-15
2
6
16-30
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
