ADO Den Haag
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
ADO Den Haag36.3%fair odds 2.75
Draw25.8%fair odds 3.88
Cambuur37.9%fair odds 2.64
Expected goals1.45 – 1.49total 2.94
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Cambuur
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| ADO Den Haag ↓ · Cambuur → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are ADO Den Haag goals, columns Cambuur goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.33
- 1–28.5%11.77
- 2–18.3%12.06
- 0–17.2%13.81
- 1–07.1%14.18
- 2–26.2%16.18
- 0–05.9%17.04
- 0–25.8%17.11
- 2–05.6%17.96
- 1–34.2%23.70
Winning margin
6.5%
ADO Den Haag by 3+
fair 15.31
10.8%
ADO Den Haag by 2
fair 9.22
18.9%
ADO Den Haag by 1
fair 5.28
25.8%
Draw
fair 3.88
19.4%
Cambuur by 1
fair 5.15
11.4%
Cambuur by 2
fair 8.78
7.1%
Cambuur by 3+
fair 14.09
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
18%5+
ADO Den Haag goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Cambuur goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 36.3% | 36.5% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.5% | +0.3 pp |
| Cambuur win | 37.9% | 38.0% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 57.6% | -1.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.0% | 60.9% | -0.9 pp |
| Expected goals ADO Den Haag | 1.45 | 1.48 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Cambuur | 1.49 | 1.52 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- ADO Den Haag win36.3%2.75
- Draw25.8%3.88
- Cambuur win37.9%2.64
- Double chance ADO Den Haag or draw62.1%1.61
- Double chance ADO Den Haag or Cambuur74.2%1.35
- Double chance Cambuur or draw63.7%1.57
- Draw no bet ADO Den Haag48.9%2.04
- Draw no bet Cambuur51.1%1.96
Goals
- Over 0.594.1%1.06
- Over 1.579.8%1.25
- Over 2.556.4%1.77
- Over 3.534.0%2.94
- Over 4.517.5%5.70
- Under 1.520.2%4.96
- Under 2.543.6%2.29
- Under 3.566.0%1.52
Both teams to score
- Yes60.0%1.67
- No40.0%2.50
- Yes and over 2.548.0%2.09
- ADO Den Haag win and yes19.7%5.09
- Draw and yes19.9%5.03
- Cambuur win and yes20.4%4.90
Team goals
- ADO Den Haag over 0.576.6%1.30
- ADO Den Haag over 1.542.7%2.34
- ADO Den Haag over 2.518.0%5.56
- Cambuur over 0.577.5%1.29
- Cambuur over 1.543.9%2.28
- Cambuur over 2.518.9%5.30
- ADO Den Haag clean sheet22.5%4.44
- Cambuur clean sheet23.4%4.28
- ADO Den Haag win to nil16.7%6.00
- Cambuur win to nil17.5%5.72
Handicap
- ADO Den Haag −1.517.4%5.75
- ADO Den Haag −2.56.5%15.31
- Cambuur +1.582.6%1.21
- Cambuur +2.593.5%1.07
- Cambuur −1.518.5%5.41
- ADO Den Haag +1.581.5%1.23
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored55
Favourite won56.4%
Avg chance given to result42.8%
1X2 Brier0.587
Over 2.5 called right80.0%
BTTS called right70.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.9% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 15 | 46.0% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 20 | 55.4% | 65.0% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 65.3% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 84.1% | 40.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 29 of 55 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6182 | 0.6237 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.4% | 41.8% |
| Favourite won | 51.7% | 51.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 29 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 55 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.