ADO Den Haag
Attack−30%
Defense risk+55%
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 13). PSV Eindhoven usually keep the ball (60% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. ADO Den Haag were without M. Hokke. PSV Eindhoven were without P. Wanner and J. Schouten. ADO Den Haag had 6.1 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 3.8 and had to travel.
Rest days6.1 · 3.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
ADO Den Haag8%
Draw13%
PSV Eindhoven78%
ADO Den Haag10%
Draw17%
PSV Eindhoven73%
ADO Den Haag8%
Draw13%
PSV Eindhoven79%
ADO Den Haag5%
Draw10%
PSV Eindhoven84%
ADO Den Haag9%
Draw14%
PSV Eindhoven76%
Over 2.5 77%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 0–3
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (‘s-Gravenhage)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof
- Cards per match 2.5
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 42
Team strength
ADO Den Haag
PSV Eindhoven
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
76
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
15
AttackIn forecast
60
18
DefenceIn forecast
64
13
Form indexContext
44
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack+34%
Defense risk−25%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
ADO Den HaagPSV Eindhoven
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.25
2.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
2.71
2.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
75%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
10.63
ShotsContext
20.13
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.63
32%
On target shareContext
38%
6.57
Shots in the boxContext
13.88
55%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
17.75
Shots allowedContext
10.25
7.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.38
4.88
BlocksContext
3.33
4.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
67%
Save rateContext
68%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
404
PassesContext
592
325
Accurate passesContext
526
81%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.64
Team ratingContext
7.07
13.25
FoulsContext
9.88
10.25
Fouls sufferedContext
8.63
1.38
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.70
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
2.49
2.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
60%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.30
ShotsContext
18.00
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.80
28%
On target shareContext
38%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
12.20
56%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.88
15.80
Shots allowedContext
10.90
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.60
BlocksContext
3.63
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
65%
Save rateContext
71%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
412
PassesContext
559
331
Accurate passesContext
495
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.99
13.90
FoulsContext
10.50
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
ADO Den Haag
DLLDD
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 13 · 3 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
PSV Eindhoven
DWLWL
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—957 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 44 · 7 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -3.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| ADO Den Haag |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 13 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 957 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
ADO Den Haag
Confirmed XI
1K. Nikiéma(G)
18S. Sylla
4M. Waem
3P. Mulder
22L. Wilhelm
5J. Jensen-Abbew
11E. Rottier
25J. Kilo
8J. Žambůrek
9J. Bal
46Y. Eduardo
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
18F. Kostić
4A. Obispo
2L. Geertruida
8S. Dest
17Mauro Júnior
24K. Sano
35A. Santos
20G. Til
27D. Man
21S. Mijnans
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences ADO Den Haag
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.08 goals
Attack line −3.3% · Defence line −12.8% of weighted minutes
- DEF M. Hokke Starter 6.36 Def −12.8%
- ATT D. Bárány Rotation 6.89 Att −2.8%
- ATT L. Reischl Depth 6.41 Att −0.5%
PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −21.4% · Defence line −13.3% of weighted minutes
- MID P. Wanner Starter 6.92 Att −7.8% Def −5.4%
- MID J. Schouten Starter 6.97 Att −7.5% Def −5.2%
- ATT R. Pepi Rotation 6.95 Att −6.0%
- DEF K. Sildillia Rotation 6.67 Def −2.7%
- ATT A. Pléa Depth 6.70 Att −0.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- ADO Den Haag+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- PSV Eindhoven-0.3 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
ADO Den Haag · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.67
PSV Eindhoven · Away
2.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 3.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | ADO Den Haag | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Twente | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 2–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| Groningen | L 1–4 H | W 5–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 9 · 0.00 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| ADO Den Haag | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 3.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.38 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 4.50 | 4.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 88% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 88% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| ADO Den Haag | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 2.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.38 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.90 | 4.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 70% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 10% | |
| Games | 8 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| ADO Den Haag | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 5.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.83 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 11.16 | 9.83 | 10.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.38 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 2.88 | 3.51 | 2.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| ADO Den Haag | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 5.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.25 | 9.88 | 10.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.00 | 2.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.26league 2.66
Red cards0.26league 0.05
Cards 5+14%league 11%
Fouls18.5league 21.2
Penalties0.29league 0.23
Home wins40%league 32%
ADO Den HaagNo previous matches with this referee.
PSV Eindhoven4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.0.3 · 0.8
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W10 May 26A · GO Ahead Eagles4–10
- W30 Nov 25H · FC Volendam3–00
- W18 Aug 24A · Heracles3–10
- W11 Feb 24A · FC Volendam5–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
ADO Den Haag8 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
31-45
3
46-60
1
8
61-75
2
2
76-90
PSV Eindhoven8 games · scored 26 · conceded 10
4
4
0-15
4
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
ADO Den Haag10 games · scored 9 · conceded 22
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
31-45
3
46-60
1
9
61-75
2
2
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
4
4
0-15
4
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
