Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Ajax were slight favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 47). Ajax had 14.2 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 13.2 and had to travel 30 km.
Away travel30 kmRest days14.2 · 13.2Matches / 14d0 · 1
Ajax49%
Draw25%
AZ Alkmaar26%
Ajax48%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar26%
Ajax49%
Draw25%
AZ Alkmaar26%
Ajax42%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar32%
Ajax48%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar26%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 39
Team strength
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
66
AttackIn forecast
52
55
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxAZ Alkmaar
2.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.13
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
100%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
16.50
ShotsContext
18.38
6.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
42%
On target shareContext
33%
12.50
Shots in the boxContext
11.88
76%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.33
11.88
Shots allowedContext
12.88
5.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.88
3.25
BlocksContext
4.43
3.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.86
72%
Save rateContext
75%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
533
PassesContext
469
466
Accurate passesContext
394
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.97
12.00
FoulsContext
10.88
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.69
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.10
ShotsContext
16.80
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
39%
On target shareContext
35%
11.20
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
74%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.71
11.60
Shots allowedContext
13.60
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.30
BlocksContext
4.40
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
67%
Save rateContext
75%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
526
PassesContext
448
460
Accurate passesContext
378
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.94
12.20
FoulsContext
10.30
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AZ Alkmaar
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel30 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
AZ Alkmaar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 13.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 30 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1V. Jaroš(G)
2Lucas Rosa
15Y. Baas
37J. Šutalo
3A. Gaaei
8K. Taylor
24J. Mokio
11M. Godts
10O. Gloukh
17O. Edvardsen
25W. Weghorst
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
34M. de Wit
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
30D. Kasius
10S. Mijnans
26K. Smit
6P. Koopmeiners
17I. Jensen
9T. Parrott
7Weslley Patati
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AZ Alkmaar-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
3.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 0.50
AZ Alkmaar · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Ajax | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| FC Volendam | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Heracles | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Telstar | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 13 of 15 · 2.60 per game | 11 of 15 · 2.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Ajax wins1 draws2 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game1.33 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 16 Mar 2025Ajax2–2AZ Alkmaar
- 8 Dec 2024AZ Alkmaar2–1Ajax
- 8 Oct 2023Ajax1–2AZ Alkmaar
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.13 | 2.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.38 | 3.63 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 88% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 88% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Ajax | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.13 | 2.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.38 | 3.63 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 88% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 88% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 6.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 11.75 | 10.01 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.63 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 5.26 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 4/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Ajax | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.11 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 11.33 | 9.90 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.30 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.13league 3.49
Red cards0.13league 0.23
Cards 5+28%league 36%
Fouls19.3league 22.3
Penalties0.26league 0.23
Home wins49%league 51%
Ajax3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D14 May 25A · Groningen2–22
- W15 Dec 24H · Almere City FC3–01
- W12 Aug 23H · Heracles4–12
AZ Alkmaar5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W31 Aug 25A · NAC Breda1–05
- L5 Apr 25H · Feyenoord0–13
- D25 Aug 24A · Groningen0–01
- L6 Dec 23H · NEC Nijmegen1–20
- W3 Sep 23A · Vitesse2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ajax8 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
AZ Alkmaar8 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 19 · conceded 16
4
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
