Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Ajax were clear favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Excelsior. Ajax had 4 days of rest, Excelsior 6.3 and had to travel 57 km.
Away travel57 kmRest days4 · 6.3Matches / 14d3 · 3
Ajax65%
Draw19%
Excelsior16%
Ajax62%
Draw21%
Excelsior17%
Ajax65%
Draw19%
Excelsior16%
Ajax58%
Draw21%
Excelsior21%
Ajax64%
Draw19%
Excelsior17%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 41
Team strength
Ajax
Excelsior
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
66
AttackIn forecast
21
55
DefenceIn forecast
18
62
Form indexContext
37
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisExcelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxExcelsior
3.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.17
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+1.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
23.17
ShotsContext
12.00
8.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
35%
On target shareContext
40%
16.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
69%
Box shareContext
71%
14%
ConversionContext
18%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.00
10.50
Shots allowedContext
13.33
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
2.33
BlocksContext
4.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
78%
Save rateContext
70%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
579
PassesContext
402
516
Accurate passesContext
319
89%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.93
9.17
FoulsContext
12.00
8.67
Fouls sufferedContext
6.50
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
2.06
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.70
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
90%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
20.00
ShotsContext
13.00
6.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
35%
On target shareContext
39%
13.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
64%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
19%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.30
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.80
BlocksContext
4.20
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
78%
Save rateContext
70%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
563
PassesContext
406
494
Accurate passesContext
324
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.92
9.10
FoulsContext
11.70
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
6.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
DWLWW
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km334 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 62 · 10 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected
Excelsior
LWWDL
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel57 km307 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 37 · 7 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -0.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
Excelsior |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Eredivisie 2026-2027, 15 Sep | 6.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 57 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 334 km | 307 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 21.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1M. ter Stegen(G)
12Caio Henrique
15Y. Baas
6J. Kehrer
3A. Gaaei
8J. Brandt
24J. Mokio
18D. Klaassen
10O. Gloukh
9K. Dolberg
11V. Tsyhankov
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
15Simon Janssen
14J. Plug
4C. Widell
2E. da Silva Moreira
20L. Hartjes
3R. Meissen
8I. Yegoian
30Á. Þorsteinsson
19D. Garden
7Aymen Sliti
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Excelsior
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Excelsior-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Excelsior · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Ajax | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Willem II | W 5–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Ajax wins2 draws1 Excelsior wins
Goals per game1.67 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 1 Feb 2026Excelsior2–2Ajax
- 22 Nov 2025Ajax1–2Excelsior
- 19 Aug 2023Excelsior2–2Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.17 | 2.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 3.33 | 3.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 100% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 83% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Ajax | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.70 | 3.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 90% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.83 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.33 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 10.16 | 9.33 | 10.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 0.67 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Ajax | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 10.78 | 9.00 | 10.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 2.30 | 2.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.39league 2.60
Red cards0.07league 0.05
Cards 5+27%league 12%
Fouls22.6league 20.6
Penalties0.15league 0.21
Home wins46%league 28%
Ajax4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.0.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 Aug 26A · PEC Zwolle2–02
- W24 Jan 26H · FC Volendam2–01
- D1 Nov 25H · Heerenveen1–10
- W10 Aug 25H · Telstar2–00
Excelsior3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L1 Mar 26H · GO Ahead Eagles0–11
- L26 Oct 25A · GO Ahead Eagles0–22
- L22 Oct 23H · PEC Zwolle2–40
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ajax6 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
61-75
6
3
76-90
Excelsior6 games · scored 13 · conceded 7
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 24 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
61-75
8
6
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 25 · conceded 12
3
4
0-15
2
16-30
7
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
5
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
