Ajax
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Ajax64.9%fair odds 1.54
Draw19.6%fair odds 5.10
Excelsior15.5%fair odds 6.47
Expected goals2.30 – 1.05total 3.35
Likeliest score2–19.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Excelsior
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Ajax ↓ · Excelsior → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Ajax goals, columns Excelsior goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.7%10.26
- 2–09.3%10.75
- 1–18.9%11.19
- 1–07.6%13.08
- 3–17.5%13.39
- 3–07.1%14.04
- 2–25.1%19.58
- 1–24.4%22.49
- 4–14.3%23.31
- 4–04.1%24.43
Winning margin
23.3%
Ajax by 3+
fair 4.29
19.4%
Ajax by 2
fair 5.15
22.2%
Ajax by 1
fair 4.51
19.6%
Draw
fair 5.10
9.9%
Excelsior by 1
fair 10.12
4.0%
Excelsior by 2
fair 24.76
1.5%
Excelsior by 3+
fair 64.84
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
25%5+
Ajax goals
10%0
23%1
27%2
20%3
20%4+
Excelsior goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax win | 64.9% | 63.7% | +1.2 pp |
| Draw | 19.6% | 20.2% | -0.6 pp |
| Excelsior win | 15.5% | 16.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.0% | 63.6% | +1.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.9% | 58.3% | +0.6 pp |
| Expected goals Ajax | 2.30 | 2.23 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Excelsior | 1.05 | 1.04 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Ajax win64.9%1.54
- Draw19.6%5.10
- Excelsior win15.5%6.47
- Double chance Ajax or draw84.5%1.18
- Double chance Ajax or Excelsior80.4%1.24
- Double chance Excelsior or draw35.1%2.85
- Draw no bet Ajax80.8%1.24
- Draw no bet Excelsior19.2%5.20
Goals
- Over 0.596.0%1.04
- Over 1.585.1%1.17
- Over 2.565.0%1.54
- Over 3.543.0%2.33
- Over 4.524.6%4.07
- Under 1.514.9%6.73
- Under 2.535.0%2.86
- Under 3.557.0%1.75
Both teams to score
- Yes58.9%1.70
- No41.1%2.43
- Yes and over 2.549.9%2.00
- Ajax win and yes33.8%2.95
- Draw and yes15.6%6.40
- Excelsior win and yes9.4%10.66
Team goals
- Ajax over 0.590.0%1.11
- Ajax over 1.566.9%1.50
- Ajax over 2.540.3%2.48
- Excelsior over 0.564.9%1.54
- Excelsior over 1.528.2%3.55
- Excelsior over 2.58.9%11.19
- Ajax clean sheet35.1%2.85
- Excelsior clean sheet10.0%9.95
- Ajax win to nil31.1%3.22
- Excelsior win to nil6.1%16.46
Handicap
- Ajax −1.542.7%2.34
- Ajax −2.523.3%4.29
- Excelsior +1.557.3%1.75
- Excelsior +2.576.7%1.30
- Excelsior −1.55.6%17.92
- Ajax +1.594.4%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored57
Favourite won54.4%
Avg chance given to result42.2%
1X2 Brier0.595
Over 2.5 called right78.9%
BTTS called right70.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.8% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 16 | 45.9% | 37.5% |
| 50–60% | 20 | 55.4% | 65.0% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 65.3% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 84.1% | 40.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 31 of 57 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6295 | 0.6330 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.5% | 41.0% |
| Favourite won | 48.4% | 48.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 31 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 57 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.