Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Ajax
4th · 42 pts · 23 played
DWDDW
First leg2–2
1–1Full time
NEC Nijmegen
3rd · 42 pts · 23 played
WWWLD
Our take
Ajax were slight favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 39). Ajax had 7 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 4 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days7 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Ajax52%
Draw24%
NEC Nijmegen24%
Ajax51%
Draw25%
NEC Nijmegen24%
Ajax52%
Draw24%
NEC Nijmegen24%
Ajax44%
Draw25%
NEC Nijmegen31%
Ajax51%
Draw25%
NEC Nijmegen24%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 48
Team strength
AjaxNEC Nijmegen
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
66
AttackIn forecast
37
55
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxNEC Nijmegen
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.52
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.75
96%
Scored inContext
96%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
15.00
ShotsContext
15.65
6.35
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.61
42%
On target shareContext
42%
10.74
Shots in the boxContext
9.83
71%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
16%
1.68
OffsidesContext
2.42
12.78
Shots allowedContext
11.57
4.68
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.87
4.05
BlocksContext
2.48
3.41
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.32
73%
Save rateContext
67%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
529
PassesContext
430
458
Accurate passesContext
344
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.94
10.22
FoulsContext
11.17
12.09
Fouls sufferedContext
12.04
1.61
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.77
100%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.90
ShotsContext
15.60
6.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
42%
On target shareContext
41%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
65%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
16%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.50
Shots allowedContext
12.30
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.88
BlocksContext
3.00
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
69%
Save rateContext
67%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
544
PassesContext
430
473
Accurate passesContext
342
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.88
9.10
FoulsContext
10.20
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km60 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NEC Nijmegen
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel88 km189 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 4Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 60 km | 189 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
26M. Paes(G)
5O. Wijndal
15Y. Baas
37J. Šutalo
2Lucas Rosa
48Sean Steur
6Y. Regeer
28K. Fitz-Jim
11M. Godts
9K. Dolberg
43Rayane Bounida
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
4A. Kaplan
3P. Sandler
14E. Dasa
11B. Önal
6D. Nejašmić
23K. Sano
25S. Ouaissa
20N. Lebreton
10T. Chery
30B. Linssen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- NEC Nijmegen+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
2.17points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-2-2
- Scored
- 1.92
- Conceded
- 0.83
NEC Nijmegen · Away
1.58points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-3
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Ajax | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Excelsior | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H | W 5–0 H |
| FC Volendam | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | W 3–2 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Telstar | W 3–2 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Feyenoord | W 2–0 H | W 4–2 A |
| Groningen | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Utrecht | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Twente | W 3–2 A | D 3–3 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 3–3 A | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H |
| NAC Breda | W 2–1 H | W 4–3 AW 3–0 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | D 2–2 A | L 3–5 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Heracles | W 2–0 H | W 4–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Points | 41 of 66 · 1.86 per game | 41 of 66 · 1.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Ajax wins2 draws1 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.80
Over 2.5100%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 20 Dec 2025NEC Nijmegen2–2Ajax
- 11 May 2025Ajax0–3NEC Nijmegen
- 1 Dec 2024NEC Nijmegen1–2Ajax
- 18 Feb 2024Ajax2–2NEC Nijmegen
- 3 Dec 2023NEC Nijmegen1–2Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.52 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 4.22 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 96% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 83% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 74% | 83% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 4% | 4% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 4.20 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 90% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 100% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.76 | 5.18 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.95 | 4.45 | |
| Match total | 9.71 | 9.63 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 11/21 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 8/21 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 7/21 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.65 | 1.96 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.65 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.18 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 9/23 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 7/23 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 8.76 | 10.22 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.40 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.27league 3.31
Red cards0.15league 0.20
Cards 5+29%league 30%
Fouls19.6league 21.6
Penalties0.29league 0.25
Home wins48%league 44%
Ajax5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W11 Jan 26A · Telstar3–21
- L18 Oct 25H · AZ Alkmaar0–24
- D14 May 25A · Groningen2–22
- W15 Dec 24H · Almere City FC3–01
- W12 Aug 23H · Heracles4–12
NEC Nijmegen3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W31 Aug 24A · Fortuna Sittard3–00
- L9 Feb 24A · Waalwijk0–23
- W6 Dec 23A · AZ Alkmaar2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ajax23 games · scored 46 · conceded 30
9
4
0-15
6
4
16-30
11
6
31-45
9
7
46-60
3
5
61-75
8
4
76-90
NEC Nijmegen23 games · scored 58 · conceded 39
8
5
0-15
5
5
16-30
8
11
31-45
12
8
46-60
11
5
61-75
14
5
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 21 · conceded 13
7
1
0-15
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 25 · conceded 17
5
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
6
31-45
6
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
