Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Ajax were clear favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Ajax. Ajax had 21 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 20.2 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days21 · 20.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Ajax67%
Draw17%
NEC Nijmegen16%
Ajax56%
Draw24%
NEC Nijmegen21%
Ajax65%
Draw18%
NEC Nijmegen17%
Ajax58%
Draw20%
NEC Nijmegen22%
Ajax65%
Draw18%
NEC Nijmegen17%
Over 2.5 72%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 114
Team strength
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
66
AttackIn forecast
37
55
DefenceIn forecast
33
61
Form indexContext
10
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxNEC Nijmegen
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.71
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
2.38
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
+1.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.67
100%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
24.57
ShotsContext
15.14
8.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.14
33%
On target shareContext
27%
17.14
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
69%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.40
9.57
Shots allowedContext
11.57
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.57
2.14
BlocksContext
3.14
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
78%
Save rateContext
56%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
613
PassesContext
497
550
Accurate passesContext
407
90%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.58
8.71
FoulsContext
11.14
9.14
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.85
xGVia Att/Def
—
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
—
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
22.00
ShotsContext
13.10
7.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
33%
On target shareContext
33%
14.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
67%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.83
10.00
Shots allowedContext
12.30
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.70
BlocksContext
2.80
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
79%
Save rateContext
55%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
598
PassesContext
485
530
Accurate passesContext
392
89%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.54
9.00
FoulsContext
11.90
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
WLWWD
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 10 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected
NEC Nijmegen
LDLLD
Rest20.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 10 · 2 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -5.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Eredivisie 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 20.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1M. ter Stegen(G)
5O. Wijndal
15Y. Baas
6J. Kehrer
2Lucas Rosa
8J. Brandt
4S. Amrabat
24J. Mokio
10O. Gloukh
99T. Arokodare
11V. Tsyhankov
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville
4P. Schuurs
73Gabriel Brás
34Kevin Kers
20N. Lebreton
6D. Nejašmić
21T. Storm
10D. Tadić
9T. Chery
30B. Linssen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.14 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax+1.4 pp
- Draw-0.8 pp
- NEC Nijmegen-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
NEC Nijmegen · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Ajax | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Willem II | W 5–1 H | W 4–1 A |
| Telstar | W 4–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 10 of 12 · 2.50 per game | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Ajax wins3 draws1 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.67
Over 2.583%
Both scored83%
Clean sheets0% · 17%
- 21 Feb 2026Ajax1–1NEC Nijmegen
- 20 Dec 2025NEC Nijmegen2–2Ajax
- 11 May 2025Ajax0–3NEC Nijmegen
- 1 Dec 2024NEC Nijmegen1–2Ajax
- 18 Feb 2024Ajax2–2NEC Nijmegen
- 3 Dec 2023NEC Nijmegen1–2Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 4.29 | 3.57 | 3.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 86% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 86% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 86% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 90% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.83 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.33 | 3.71 | |
| Match total | 10.16 | 8.71 | 10.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 3.14 | 2.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.13 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.75 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 10.88 | 7.45 | 10.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 114 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.87league 2.64
Red cards0.11league 0.04
Cards 5+41%league 10%
Fouls22.9league 21.0
Penalties0.26league 0.19
Home wins50%league 31%
Ajax13 with this referee
Record6-4-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W25 Apr 26A · NAC Breda2–02
- L7 Mar 26A · Groningen1–31
- D17 Jan 26H · GO Ahead Eagles2–22
- W14 Dec 25H · Feyenoord2–02
- W26 Oct 25A · Twente3–22
NEC Nijmegen7 with this referee
Record3-3-1
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W15 Aug 26A · Willem II4–10
- D12 Apr 26H · Feyenoord1–13
- W31 Jan 26A · AZ Alkmaar3–12
- L2 Nov 25A · Utrecht0–12
- W11 May 25A · Ajax3–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ajax7 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
6
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
NEC Nijmegen7 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 24 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
7
5
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
3
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
6
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
5
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
