Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Ajax were clear favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 25). Ajax had 14 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 13.1 and had to travel 83 km.
Away travel83 kmRest days14 · 13.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Ajax66%
Draw20%
PEC Zwolle14%
Ajax64%
Draw21%
PEC Zwolle15%
Ajax66%
Draw20%
PEC Zwolle14%
Ajax59%
Draw23%
PEC Zwolle19%
Ajax64%
Draw21%
PEC Zwolle15%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 40
Team strength
Ajax
PEC Zwolle
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
66
AttackIn forecast
17
55
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxPEC Zwolle
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
0.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.39
100%
Scored inContext
67%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
19.50
ShotsContext
8.00
8.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.33
41%
On target shareContext
29%
14.75
Shots in the boxContext
4.67
74%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.67
10.25
Shots allowedContext
13.67
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
3.50
BlocksContext
3.33
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
77%
Save rateContext
88%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
599
PassesContext
390
536
Accurate passesContext
310
89%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.13
Team ratingContext
7.05
11.50
FoulsContext
12.33
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.67
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
0.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
18.10
ShotsContext
12.70
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
31%
On target shareContext
31%
14.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
73%
Box shareContext
59%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.70
10.00
Shots allowedContext
13.70
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.22
BlocksContext
3.89
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
67%
Save rateContext
74%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
575
PassesContext
427
503
Accurate passesContext
351
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.07
Team ratingContext
7.02
10.60
FoulsContext
12.50
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km36 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PEC Zwolle
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel83 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
PEC Zwolle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Eredivisie 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 13.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 83 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 36 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1V. Jaroš(G)
3A. Gaaei
4K. Itakura
15Y. Baas
5O. Wijndal
6Y. Regeer
8K. Taylor
18D. Klaassen
23S. Berghuis
25W. Weghorst
11M. Godts
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
3O. Aertssen
28S. Graves
4A. MacNulty
2S. Floranus
25T. Oosting
30R. Thomas
35Jamiro Monteiro
11D. Mbayo
10Koen Kostons
22K. de Rooij
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Absences are shown before kick-off
PEC Zwolle
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- PEC Zwolle+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
PEC Zwolle · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Ajax | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Telstar | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Ajax wins1 draws0 PEC Zwolle wins
Goals per game1.67 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 9 Mar 2025PEC Zwolle0–1Ajax
- 24 Nov 2024Ajax2–0PEC Zwolle
- 17 Dec 2023Ajax2–2PEC Zwolle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.67 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 0% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 4 | 3 |
| Ajax | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.67 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 0% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 4 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.50 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 13.25 | 5.50 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.25 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 4.67 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Ajax | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.00 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 11.60 | 7.67 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.70 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.38league 3.41
Red cards0.23league 0.18
Cards 5+30%league 35%
Fouls22.2league 22.4
Penalties0.20league 0.18
Home wins43%league 50%
Ajax2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W5 Nov 23H · Heerenveen4–11
- D3 Sep 23A · Fortuna Sittard0–02
PEC Zwolle4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L9 Feb 25A · AZ Alkmaar0–23
- W29 Sep 24H · Almere City FC1–02
- L24 Aug 24A · NEC Nijmegen0–14
- L8 Oct 23H · Feyenoord0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ajax4 games · scored 7 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
PEC Zwolle3 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
2
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
