Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were slight favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for PSV Eindhoven. Ajax had 6.1 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 6.3 and had to travel 111 km.
Away travel111 kmRest days6.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d1 · 2
Ajax25%
Draw21%
PSV Eindhoven54%
Ajax28%
Draw25%
PSV Eindhoven47%
Ajax24%
Draw21%
PSV Eindhoven55%
Ajax19%
Draw19%
PSV Eindhoven62%
Ajax26%
Draw22%
PSV Eindhoven52%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 68
Team strength
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
78
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
66
AttackIn forecast
60
55
DefenceIn forecast
64
65
Form indexContext
73
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxPSV Eindhoven
2.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.75
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
3.00
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.73
+0.80
Goals minus xGContext
+0.75
100%
Scored inContext
100%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
20.33
ShotsContext
23.75
6.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
10.00
31%
On target shareContext
42%
11.67
Shots in the boxContext
16.50
57%
Box shareContext
71%
13%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
10.67
Shots allowedContext
5.25
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.25
2.67
BlocksContext
1.50
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
93%
Save rateContext
58%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
66%
530
PassesContext
623
472
Accurate passesContext
556
89%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.15
Team ratingContext
7.20
10.33
FoulsContext
7.50
10.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
0.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.80
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
2.57
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+1.23
90%
Scored inContext
100%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.70
ShotsContext
19.00
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.20
34%
On target shareContext
43%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
12.60
57%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
20%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.33
12.20
Shots allowedContext
8.80
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.80
BlocksContext
2.75
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
80%
Save rateContext
68%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
509
PassesContext
562
440
Accurate passesContext
496
86%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.09
Team ratingContext
7.21
9.60
FoulsContext
8.60
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.10
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
WDW
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km38 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 65 · 7 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
PSV Eindhoven
DWWW
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel111 km153 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 73 · 10 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 6.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 111 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 38 km | 153 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1M. ter Stegen(G)
12Caio Henrique
15Y. Baas
30A. Bouwman
3A. Gaaei
8J. Brandt
24J. Mokio
18D. Klaassen
10O. Gloukh
99T. Arokodare
23S. Berghuis
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
17Mauro Júnior
4A. Obispo
2L. Geertruida
8S. Dest
31N. Fernandez
24K. Sano
7R. van Bommel
20G. Til
5I. Perišić
9R. Pepi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax+0.9 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- PSV Eindhoven-1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
PSV Eindhoven · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Ajax wins3 draws1 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored83%
Clean sheets17% · 0%
- 2 May 2026Ajax2–2PSV Eindhoven
- 21 Sep 2025PSV Eindhoven2–2Ajax
- 30 Mar 2025PSV Eindhoven0–2Ajax
- 2 Nov 2024Ajax3–2PSV Eindhoven
- 3 Feb 2024Ajax1–1PSV Eindhoven
- 29 Oct 2023PSV Eindhoven5–2Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 3.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 4 |
| Ajax | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 3.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 5.10 | 3.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 90% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 8.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.67 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 10.50 | 10.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 0.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Ajax | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 11.00 | 10.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.60 | 2.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 68 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.32league 2.26
Red cards0.26league 0.06
Cards 5+31%league 11%
Fouls21.9league 20.6
Penalties0.18league 0.20
Home wins49%league 29%
Ajax6 with this referee
Record3-2-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L4 Apr 26H · Twente1–24
- D1 Mar 26A · PEC Zwolle0–02
- W6 Dec 25A · Fortuna Sittard3–14
- W13 Sep 25H · PEC Zwolle3–12
- W5 Nov 23H · Heerenveen4–11
PSV Eindhoven6 with this referee
Record5-0-1
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W7 Mar 26H · AZ Alkmaar2–12
- L13 Feb 26A · FC Volendam1–20
- W18 Oct 25H · GO Ahead Eagles2–11
- W17 Aug 25A · Twente2–02
- W6 Dec 24H · Twente6–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ajax3 games · scored 8 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
3
1
76-90
PSV Eindhoven4 games · scored 15 · conceded 5
3
2
0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
46-60
61-75
5
5
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 38 · conceded 13
6
5
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
9
2
46-60
4
61-75
11
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
