Ajax vs Telstar – 10 Aug 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Aug 10 · 13:30 Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam

Ajax

2–0Full time

Telstar

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Ajax were clear favourites.

Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 30). Ajax had ? days of rest, Telstar ? and had to travel 19 km.

Away travel19 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Ajax62%

Draw21%

Telstar16%

Expected goals 2.07 – 0.97

Ajax61%

Draw23%

Telstar17%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.92

Ajax62%

Draw21%

Telstar16%

Expected goals 2.07 – 0.97

Ajax54%

Draw24%

Telstar22%

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.09

Ajax61%

Draw23%

Telstar17%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.92

Over 2.5 59% Both score 55% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Amsterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 20

Team strength

Ajax

Telstar

57 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

53 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

66 AttackIn forecast 24

55 DefenceIn forecast 13

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ajax

Attack—

Defense risk—

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Ajax

Telstar

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def —

1.57 xGVia Att/Def —

0.99 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext —

80% Scored inContext —

20% Clean sheetsContext —

15.30 ShotsContext —

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

27% On target shareContext —

11.33 Shots in the boxContext —

68% Box shareContext —

10% ConversionContext —

1.80 OffsidesContext —

10.60 Shots allowedContext —

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

3.25 BlocksContext —

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext —

64% Save rateContext —

58% PossessionIn forecast —

536 PassesContext —

458 Accurate passesContext —

85% Pass accuracyContext —

7.00 Team ratingContext —

9.10 FoulsContext —

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext —

1.40 Yellow cardsContext —

0.10 Red cardsContext —

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 0 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ajax

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Telstar

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel19 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Ajax	Telstar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	19 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	5.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ajax Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1V. Jaroš(G)

5O. Wijndal 15Y. Baas 30A. Bouwman 6Y. Regeer

8K. Taylor 18D. Klaassen 23S. Berghuis

7Raúl Moro 25W. Weghorst 20B. Traoré

Telstar Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1R. Koeman(G)

6D. Bakker 4G. Offerhaus 21D. Koswal

2J. Hardeveld 17N. Rossen 8T. Owusu 11T. Noslin

27P. Brouwer 7S. Hetli

9Milan Zonneveld

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Ajax Absences are shown before kick-off

Telstar Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Ajax+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Telstar+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Ajax · Home No home games yet this season.

Telstar · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Ajax	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.04
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	59%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	55%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Ajax	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.04
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	59%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	55%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Ajax	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.83
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Ajax	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	6.33	3.50
Corners conceded	3.00	4.00
Match total	9.33	7.50	9.83
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	0% 0/2
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.50
Opponent cards	2.30	1.50
Match total	3.80	4.00	3.00
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 1/2

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 20 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.95league 2.83

Red cards0.05league 0.17

Cards 5+40%league 33%

Fouls23.5league 21.0

Penalties0.25league 0.17

Home wins50%league 67%

Ajax

No previous matches with this referee.

Telstar

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.