Alanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alanyaspor were slight favourites.
Alanyaspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (24 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Alanyaspor. Alanyaspor had 5.9 days of rest, Eyüpspor 4.8 and had to travel 481 km.
Away travel481 kmRest days5.9 · 4.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Alanyaspor53%
Draw24%
Eyüpspor23%
Alanyaspor50%
Draw26%
Eyüpspor24%
Alanyaspor53%
Draw24%
Eyüpspor22%
Alanyaspor45%
Draw26%
Eyüpspor29%
Alanyaspor53%
Draw24%
Eyüpspor23%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Aksu
- Cards per match 2.2
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 6
Team strength
Alanyaspor
Eyüpspor
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
18
AttackIn forecast
9
24
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlanyasporEyüpspor
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.68
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
68%
Scored inContext
47%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
11.89
ShotsContext
11.11
3.74
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.72
31%
On target shareContext
32%
7.58
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
64%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
6%
1.73
OffsidesContext
2.68
10.00
Shots allowedContext
13.26
3.74
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.58
2.77
BlocksContext
4.12
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.59
74%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
399
PassesContext
370
335
Accurate passesContext
299
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.32
FoulsContext
11.79
14.95
Fouls sufferedContext
14.68
2.21
Yellow cardsContext
2.32
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.50
60%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.50
ShotsContext
10.90
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
29%
On target shareContext
34%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
63%
Box shareContext
64%
6%
ConversionContext
6%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.40
9.50
Shots allowedContext
13.20
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
2.75
BlocksContext
4.11
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
77%
Save rateContext
68%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
423
PassesContext
358
367
Accurate passesContext
287
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.10
FoulsContext
12.90
14.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alanyaspor
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel123 km1,780 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Eyüpspor
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel481 km926 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alanyaspor |
Eyüpspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 4.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 26 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 123 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,780 km | 926 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
1M. Taşkıran(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
11Ruan
17N. Janvier
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
16U. Hwang
10G. Yalçın
7E. Karaca
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
24J. Yılmaz(G)
77C. Meraş
68J. Onguéné
6R. Yalçın
17Talha Ülvan
23L. Pintor
55B. Gezek
28T. İlter
26Metehan Altunbaş
19U. Bozok
8E. Akbaba
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alanyaspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eyüpspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alanyaspor-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Eyüpspor+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Alanyaspor · Home
1.33points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-3
- Scored
- 0.89
- Conceded
- 0.67
Eyüpspor · Away
0.56points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-6
- Scored
- 0.44
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Alanyaspor | Eyüpspor |
|---|---|---|
| Rizespor | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 HD 2–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Kayserispor | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Antalyaspor | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Goztepe | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Genclerbirligi | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Konyaspor | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H |
| Besiktas | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 22 of 54 · 1.22 per game | 12 of 54 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Alanyaspor wins1 draws2 Eyüpspor wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 25 Aug 2025Eyüpspor2–1Alanyaspor
- 19 Jan 2025Eyüpspor3–0Alanyaspor
- 11 Aug 2024Alanyaspor1–1Eyüpspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alanyaspor | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.68 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.11 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 32% | 37% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 42% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 53% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Alanyaspor | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.30 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alanyaspor | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.81 | 5.35 | |
| Match total | 8.81 | 9.64 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 8/16 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 7/16 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 7/16 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.26 | 2.37 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.89 | 2.05 | |
| Match total | 4.15 | 4.42 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 10/19 | 63% 12/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 7/19 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Alanyaspor | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 8.89 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.30 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Aksu Türkiye · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.00league 4.38
Red cards0.17league 0.24
Cards 5+0%league 45%
Fouls22.2league 25.8
Penalties0.00league 0.26
Home wins17%league 35%
Alanyaspor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D3 Nov 25H · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–03
Eyüpspor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 May 25H · Antalyaspor2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alanyaspor19 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
3
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
6
5
76-90
Eyüpspor19 games · scored 13 · conceded 27
3
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
11
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
