Arsenal vs Everton – 24 Oct 2026

Premier League Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 24 · 15:00 Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 2nd · 18 pts · 7 played WWLWW

VS— Compare

Everton 8th · 10 pts · 7 played DDWDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal are clear favourites.

Arsenal are the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 67). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Everton. Arsenal have 2.8 days of rest, Everton 7.1 and have to travel 286 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel286 kmRest days2.8 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 2

Arsenal74%

Draw16%

Everton10%

Expected goals 2.55 – 0.83

Arsenal74%

Draw17%

Everton9%

Expected goals 2.43 – 0.74

Arsenal74%

Draw16%

Everton10%

Expected goals 2.55 – 0.83

Arsenal67%

Draw19%

Everton14%

Expected goals 2.27 – 0.93

Arsenal72%

Draw18%

Everton10%

Expected goals 2.33 – 0.78

Over 2.5 66% Both score 52% Likeliest score 2–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

12°COvercast

Precipitation 51%
Wind 18 km/h
Humidity 47%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Arsenal 3 Wins in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row

Team strength

Arsenal

Everton

94 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

94 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

86 AttackIn forecast 61

95 DefenceIn forecast 66

92 Form indexContext 50

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack+7%

Defense risk−12%

Everton

Attack−35%

Defense risk+30%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Arsenal

Everton

1.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14

0.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.37

0.78 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

86% Scored inContext 71%

57% Clean sheetsContext 43%

12.29 ShotsContext 14.43

4.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

34% On target shareContext 35%

8.71 Shots in the boxContext 10.83

73% Box shareContext 68%

13% ConversionContext 8%

4.00 OffsidesContext 2.29

11.14 Shots allowedContext 13.71

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.29

3.00 BlocksContext 5.00

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

71% Save rateContext 70%

61% PossessionIn forecast 47%

520 PassesContext 433

453 Accurate passesContext 361

87% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.98

10.14 FoulsContext 7.43

15.86 Fouls sufferedContext 13.29

1.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.71

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

0.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

90% Scored inContext 70%

60% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.50 ShotsContext 13.40

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

34% On target shareContext 34%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.89

71% Box shareContext 70%

12% ConversionContext 8%

3.60 OffsidesContext 2.25

10.80 Shots allowedContext 14.40

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.10 BlocksContext 5.44

2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

75% Save rateContext 70%

57% PossessionIn forecast 47%

508 PassesContext 414

441 Accurate passesContext 342

87% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.88

11.20 FoulsContext 9.70

14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal WLWWW

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,186 km in 14d

Schedule load28%Moderate

Form 92 · 12 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected

W18 OctA · Nottingham Forest1–01.9 xPts
W13 OctH · Lille3–02.5 xPts
W10 OctH · Leeds2–12.2 xPts
L19 SepA · Brighton0–31.8 xPts
W12 SepA · Sunderland2–02.0 xPts

Everton DDWDL

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel286 km357 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 50 · 6 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected

L17 OctH · Chelsea0–21.5 xPts
D11 OctA · Hull City2–21.7 xPts
W19 SepH · Ipswich1–02.0 xPts
D12 SepA · Tottenham0–01.3 xPts
D6 SepH · Manchester United2–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arsenal	Everton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 28	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Oct	7.1Premier League 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,186 km	357 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	9.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Nottingham Forest (A) 1–0, 18 Oct

1David Raya(G)

33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 15E. Konsa 4B. White

39Bruno Guimarães 41D. Rice

10E. Eze 8M. Ødegaard 7B. Saka

29K. Havertz

Everton Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Chelsea (H) 0–2, 17 Oct

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 4J. Branthwaite 6J. Tarkowski 2A. Maitland-Niles

37J. Garner 45H. Armstrong

10J. Grealish 8K. Dewsbury-Hall 34M. Röhl

11T. Barry

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arsenal No reported absences

Everton No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Arsenal+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Everton+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 0.67

Everton · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-3-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Arsenal	Everton
Chelsea	W 2–1 H	L 0–2 H
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

6 Arsenal wins2 draws2 Everton wins

Goals per game1.70 – 0.60 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets50% · 20%

14 Mar 2026Arsenal2–0Everton
20 Dec 2025Everton0–1Arsenal
5 Apr 2025Everton1–1Arsenal
14 Dec 2024Arsenal0–0Everton
19 May 2024Arsenal2–1Everton
17 Sep 2023Everton0–1Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arsenal	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.57	1.14
Conceded per game	0.71	1.00
Match goals	2.29	2.14	3.38
Over 1.5	71%	71%
Over 2.5	57%	29%	66%
Over 3.5	0%	29%
Both teams scored	29%	43%	52%
Clean sheets	57%	43%
Failed to score	14%	29%
Games	7	7

	Arsenal	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.10
Conceded per game	0.60	1.30
Match goals	2.30	2.40	3.38
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	66%
Over 3.5	0%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	60%	30%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arsenal	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.71	5.33
Corners conceded	4.00	6.00
Match total	8.71	11.33	9.49
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	67% 4/6
Cards
Cards	1.29	1.71
Opponent cards	3.29	2.29
Match total	4.58	4.00	4.17
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	57% 4/7

	Arsenal	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	5.78
Corners conceded	4.44	5.56
Match total	9.11	11.34	9.49
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.90
Opponent cards	2.80	1.90
Match total	4.40	3.80	4.17
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.