Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük – 21 Dec 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 17 Sun, Dec 21 · 11:30 GAIN Park Stadium, Antalya

Alanyaspor 10th · 18 pts · 16 played DLDDD

2–0Full time

Fatih Karagümrük 18th · 9 pts · 16 played WDLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Alanyaspor were slight favourites.

Alanyaspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 13). Absences weigh more on Alanyaspor. Alanyaspor had 7.9 days of rest, Fatih Karagümrük 6.9 and had to travel 481 km.

Away travel481 kmRest days7.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Alanyaspor54%

Draw25%

Fatih Karagümrük21%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.00

Alanyaspor55%

Draw24%

Fatih Karagümrük21%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.00

Alanyaspor55%

Draw24%

Fatih Karagümrük20%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.00

Alanyaspor47%

Draw26%

Fatih Karagümrük27%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.12

Alanyaspor54%

Draw25%

Fatih Karagümrük21%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.01

Over 2.5 52% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Antalya)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeAdnan Deniz Kayatepe

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.40
Matches 10

Team strength

Alanyaspor

Fatih Karagümrük

23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 13

24 Current StrengthIn forecast 15

18 AttackIn forecast 13

24 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alanyaspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fatih Karagümrük

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Alanyaspor

Fatih Karagümrük

0.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.88

0.94 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.88

1.01 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

63% Scored inContext 50%

38% Clean sheetsContext 6%

11.56 ShotsContext 10.13

3.69 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

32% On target shareContext 26%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 5.31

64% Box shareContext 54%

8% ConversionContext 9%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.50

10.44 Shots allowedContext 15.25

3.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.25

3.00 BlocksContext 3.67

3.07 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33

75% Save rateContext 66%

48% PossessionIn forecast 47%

395 PassesContext 349

329 Accurate passesContext 271

83% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.64

12.50 FoulsContext 13.94

15.38 Fouls sufferedContext 14.06

2.06 Yellow cardsContext 2.06

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 16 and 16 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

0.95 xGVia Att/Def 1.14

1.02 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.83

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

50% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.20 ShotsContext 10.10

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.13

32% On target shareContext 25%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 5.80

65% Box shareContext 59%

5% ConversionContext 10%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.67

9.90 Shots allowedContext 16.70

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.20

2.83 BlocksContext 4.00

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.80

78% Save rateContext 67%

52% PossessionIn forecast 43%

417 PassesContext 324

354 Accurate passesContext 246

85% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.71

12.20 FoulsContext 15.60

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alanyaspor

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel123 km783 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fatih Karagümrük

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel481 km704 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alanyaspor	Fatih Karagümrük
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Dec	6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	123 km	481 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	783 km	704 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	28.2	27.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alanyaspor Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1M. Taşkıran(G)

50Ü. Akdağ 5F. Aliti 3Nuno Lima

11Ruan 17N. Janvier 20F. Aksoy 94F. Hadërgjonaj

16U. Hwang 10G. Yalçın 7E. Karaca

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Fatih Karagümrük Confirmed XI

4-4-1-1

13I. Grbić(G)

33Ç. Kurukalıp 29J. Balkovec 6A. Çankaya 47Ricardo Esgaio

70Serginho 14Marius Tresor Doh 5M. Kranevitter 21T. Çukur

8B. Özcan

19D. Fofana

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alanyaspor Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fatih Karagümrük Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Alanyaspor-0.9 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Fatih Karagümrük+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Alanyaspor · Home 1.29points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-2
Scored: 0.57
Conceded: 0.43

Fatih Karagümrük · Away 0.57points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-5
Scored: 0.86
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Alanyaspor	Fatih Karagümrük
Kayserispor	D 0–0 A	D 2–2 H
Antalyaspor	D 0–0 H	W 2–1 A
Samsunspor	D 1–1 A	L 2–3 A
Kasimpasa	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 H
Trabzonspor	D 1–1 A	L 3–4 H
Gazişehir Gaziantep	D 0–0 H	L 0–2 H
Kocaelispor	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 H
Goztepe	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 H
Genclerbirligi	D 2–2 A	L 0–3 A
Galatasaray	L 0–1 H	L 0–3 A
Istanbul Basaksehir	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 H
Fenerbahce	D 2–2 A	L 1–2 A
Konyaspor	W 2–1 A	W 2–0 H
Besiktas	W 2–0 H	L 0–2 H
Eyüpspor	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 A
Rizespor	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 A
Points	18 of 48 · 1.13 per game	9 of 48 · 0.56 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Alanyaspor wins1 draws0 Fatih Karagümrük wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

25 Feb 2024Fatih Karagümrük1–1Alanyaspor
6 Oct 2023Alanyaspor2–1Fatih Karagümrük

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Alanyaspor	Fatih Karagümrük	Forecast
Scored per game	0.88	0.88
Conceded per game	0.94	1.88
Match goals	1.81	2.75	2.75
Over 1.5	63%	88%
Over 2.5	31%	44%	52%
Over 3.5	13%	19%
Both teams scored	50%	44%	53%
Clean sheets	38%	6%
Failed to score	38%	50%
Games	16	16

	Alanyaspor	Fatih Karagümrük	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	1.00
Conceded per game	0.90	1.80
Match goals	1.50	2.80	2.75
Over 1.5	50%	90%
Over 2.5	20%	40%	52%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alanyaspor	Fatih Karagümrük	League
Corners
Corners won	4.92	3.63
Corners conceded	3.77	5.75
Match total	8.69	9.38	9.39
Over 8.5	46% 6/13	56% 9/16
Over 9.5	38% 5/13	56% 9/16
Over 10.5	38% 5/13	31% 5/16
Cards
Cards	2.06	2.19
Opponent cards	2.00	1.94
Match total	4.06	4.13	4.72
Over 3.5	50% 8/16	69% 11/16
Over 4.5	38% 6/16	31% 5/16

	Alanyaspor	Fatih Karagümrük	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	3.40
Corners conceded	3.33	5.70
Match total	9.33	9.10	9.39
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.60
Opponent cards	1.50	2.10
Match total	3.50	4.70	4.72
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Adnan Deniz Kayatepe Türkiye · 10 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.40league 4.45

Red cards0.10league 0.25

Cards 5+50%league 47%

Fouls25.8league 25.7

Penalties0.40league 0.26

Home wins30%league 34%

Alanyaspor1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D21 Sep 25A · Istanbul Basaksehir1–13

Fatih Karagümrük1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W9 Nov 25H · Konyaspor2–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.