Alanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were slight favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 26). Galatasaray usually keep the ball (61% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Alanyaspor had 5.1 days of rest, Galatasaray 4 and had to travel 481 km.
Away travel481 kmRest days5.1 · 4Matches / 14d3 · 2
Alanyaspor17%
Draw23%
Galatasaray60%
Alanyaspor18%
Draw23%
Galatasaray59%
Alanyaspor17%
Draw22%
Galatasaray61%
Alanyaspor13%
Draw20%
Galatasaray67%
Alanyaspor18%
Draw24%
Galatasaray58%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeZorbay Kucuk
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 6
Team strength
Alanyaspor
Galatasaray
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
73
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
18
AttackIn forecast
57
24
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGalatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlanyasporGalatasaray
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
2.45
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.68
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.55
83%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
8.83
ShotsContext
17.67
2.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.17
32%
On target shareContext
41%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
12.17
62%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
17%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.25
11.33
Shots allowedContext
8.00
4.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.83
3.25
BlocksContext
1.60
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
72%
Save rateContext
88%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
358
PassesContext
510
287
Accurate passesContext
448
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.21
13.00
FoulsContext
12.00
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.17
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
2.28
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
90%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
70%
9.50
ShotsContext
17.70
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
38%
On target shareContext
37%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.30
63%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.43
10.90
Shots allowedContext
9.30
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.14
BlocksContext
2.50
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
79%
Save rateContext
87%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
393
PassesContext
498
327
Accurate passesContext
433
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.15
12.80
FoulsContext
12.20
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alanyaspor
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel123 km2,559 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Galatasaray
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel481 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alanyaspor |
Galatasaray |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 21 Sep | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 123 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,559 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
1M. Taşkıran(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
88Y. Özdemir
58Maestro
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
16U. Hwang
27Ibrahim Kaya
22Uchenna Ogundu
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
90W. Singo
17E. Elmalı
8Gabriel Sara
34L. Torreira
7R. Sallai
53B. Yılmaz
10L. Sané
9M. Icardi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alanyaspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Galatasaray
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alanyaspor+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Galatasaray-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Alanyaspor · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Galatasaray · Away
3.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Alanyaspor | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Rizespor | D 0–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Alanyaspor wins0 draws4 Galatasaray wins
Goals per game0.25 – 2.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets0% · 75%
- 9 Mar 2025Alanyaspor1–2Galatasaray
- 6 Oct 2024Galatasaray1–0Alanyaspor
- 15 Apr 2024Alanyaspor0–4Galatasaray
- 25 Nov 2023Galatasaray4–0Alanyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alanyaspor | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 3.33 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Alanyaspor | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 3.33 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alanyaspor | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 3.83 | |
| Match total | 7.25 | 8.66 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.83 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.33 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Alanyaspor | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 7.14 | 8.60 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 14% 1/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.20 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Zorbay Kucuk Türkiye · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.83league 4.54
Red cards0.50league 0.25
Cards 5+67%league 50%
Fouls30.5league 26.5
Penalties0.33league 0.25
Home wins50%league 38%
AlanyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
GalatasarayNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alanyaspor6 games · scored 8 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Galatasaray6 games · scored 18 · conceded 2
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 26 · conceded 7
3
0-15
6
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
46-60
5
3
61-75
8
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
