Alaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alaves. Alaves had 4.3 days of rest, Barcelona 3 and had to travel 430 km.
Away travel430 kmRest days4.3 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Alaves16%
Draw23%
Barcelona61%
Alaves11%
Draw19%
Barcelona70%
Alaves16%
Draw22%
Barcelona62%
Alaves12%
Draw20%
Barcelona68%
Alaves17%
Draw23%
Barcelona60%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 59
Team strength
Alaves
Barcelona
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
92
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
48
AttackIn forecast
97
55
DefenceIn forecast
92
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBarcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlavesBarcelona
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.54
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.89
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
2.32
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
71%
Scored inContext
100%
9%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
11.97
ShotsContext
18.54
4.12
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.83
33%
On target shareContext
37%
7.94
Shots in the boxContext
12.11
66%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.31
OffsidesContext
2.60
12.34
Shots allowedContext
8.69
4.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.59
4.03
BlocksContext
2.19
2.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.73
64%
Save rateContext
74%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
69%
411
PassesContext
639
332
Accurate passesContext
575
81%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.74
Team ratingContext
7.11
14.60
FoulsContext
9.86
13.49
Fouls sufferedContext
11.69
2.34
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.88
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
90%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.80
ShotsContext
14.90
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.80
32%
On target shareContext
46%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.90
65%
Box shareContext
73%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
1.56
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.40
Shots allowedContext
7.40
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.11
4.20
BlocksContext
1.63
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
59%
Save rateContext
75%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
66%
366
PassesContext
597
294
Accurate passesContext
541
80%
Pass accuracyContext
91%
6.70
Team ratingContext
7.12
13.80
FoulsContext
10.20
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
3.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alaves
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,073 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Barcelona
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel430 km703 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alaves |
Barcelona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.3La Liga 2025-2026, 9 May | 3La Liga 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 430 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,073 km | 703 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
21A. Rebbach
24Víctor Parada
16V. Koski
14F. Tenaglia
7Ángel Pérez
4Denis Suárez
8Antonio Blanco
18Jon Guridi
22I. Diabate
11Toni Martínez
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
25W. Szczęsny(G)
3Alejandro Balde
36Álvaro Cortés
5Pau Cubarsí
23J. Koundé
22Marc Bernal
17Marc Casadó
14M. Rashford
20Dani Olmo
19R. Bardghji
9R. Lewandowski
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alaves
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Barcelona
Scores -0.08 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alaves+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.6 pp
- Barcelona-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Alaves · Home
1.41points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-6-5
- Scored
- 1.35
- Conceded
- 1.35
Barcelona · Away
2.18points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 12-1-4
- Scored
- 2.18
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Alaves | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Elche | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Athletic Club | L 2–4 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Osasuna | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 4–3 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 HW 4–2 A |
| Villarreal | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Valencia | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | W 6–0 H |
| Levante | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Girona | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Sevilla | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | W 5–2 HL 1–4 A |
| Getafe | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Real Betis | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | W 5–3 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Oviedo | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 37 of 102 · 1.09 per game | 88 of 102 · 2.59 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
0 Alaves wins2 draws7 Barcelona wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.22
Over 2.556%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 29 Nov 2025Barcelona3–1Alaves
- 2 Feb 2025Barcelona1–0Alaves
- 6 Oct 2024Alaves0–3Barcelona
- 3 Feb 2024Alaves1–3Barcelona
- 12 Nov 2023Barcelona2–1Alaves
- 23 Jan 2022Alaves0–1Barcelona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alaves | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.54 | 0.89 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 3.49 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 74% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 66% | 57% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Alaves | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alaves | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.74 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.06 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 10.06 | 11.12 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 66% 21/32 | 79% 27/34 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 17/32 | 65% 22/34 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 15/32 | 53% 18/34 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.49 | 1.49 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.26 | 2.66 | |
| Match total | 4.75 | 4.15 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 25/35 | 49% 17/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 51% 18/35 | 37% 13/35 | |
| Alaves | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 9.60 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 5.90 | 5.20 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 59 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.31league 4.29
Red cards0.32league 0.28
Cards 5+49%league 47%
Fouls25.0league 24.5
Penalties0.27league 0.36
Home wins51%league 48%
Alaves1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 Sep 25A · Athletic Club1–03
Barcelona4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Nov 25H · Athletic Club4–00
- W17 Mar 24A · Atletico Madrid3–01
- W3 Dec 23H · Atletico Madrid1–05
- W16 Sep 23H · Real Betis5–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alaves35 games · scored 41 · conceded 54
8
6
0-15
3
9
16-30
6
4
31-45
6
11
46-60
8
9
61-75
10
15
76-90
Barcelona35 games · scored 91 · conceded 31
16
5
0-15
10
4
16-30
17
10
31-45
13
2
46-60
15
3
61-75
20
7
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 18 · conceded 22
3
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
8
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 23 · conceded 8
4
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
