Alaves
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Alaves16.1%fair odds 6.21
Draw22.9%fair odds 4.37
Barcelona61.0%fair odds 1.64
Expected goals0.87 – 1.90total 2.77
Likeliest score0–111.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Barcelona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Alaves ↓ · Barcelona → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Alaves goals, columns Barcelona goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–111.3%8.82
- 0–211.3%8.85
- 1–110.9%9.17
- 1–29.8%10.16
- 0–37.2%13.97
- 0–06.8%14.69
- 1–36.2%16.04
- 1–04.9%20.40
- 2–14.5%22.17
- 2–24.3%23.33
Winning margin
1.3%
Alaves by 3+
fair 78.56
4.0%
Alaves by 2
fair 25.09
10.8%
Alaves by 1
fair 9.22
22.9%
Draw
fair 4.37
24.3%
Barcelona by 1
fair 4.11
19.0%
Barcelona by 2
fair 5.27
17.7%
Barcelona by 3+
fair 5.64
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Alaves goals
42%0
36%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
Barcelona goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves win | 16.1% | 16.9% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 22.9% | 23.0% | -0.1 pp |
| Barcelona win | 61.0% | 60.2% | +0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 53.3% | -0.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.0% | 51.3% | -1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Alaves | 0.87 | 0.91 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Barcelona | 1.90 | 1.90 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Alaves win16.1%6.21
- Draw22.9%4.37
- Barcelona win61.0%1.64
- Double chance Alaves or draw39.0%2.57
- Double chance Alaves or Barcelona77.1%1.30
- Double chance Barcelona or draw83.9%1.19
- Draw no bet Alaves20.9%4.79
- Draw no bet Barcelona79.1%1.26
Goals
- Over 0.593.2%1.07
- Over 1.576.9%1.30
- Over 2.552.4%1.91
- Over 3.530.2%3.31
- Over 4.514.8%6.76
- Under 1.523.1%4.34
- Under 2.547.6%2.10
- Under 3.569.8%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes50.0%2.00
- No50.0%2.00
- Yes and over 2.539.1%2.56
- Alaves win and yes8.0%12.57
- Draw and yes16.1%6.22
- Barcelona win and yes26.0%3.85
Team goals
- Alaves over 0.558.1%1.72
- Alaves over 1.521.7%4.61
- Alaves over 2.55.8%17.19
- Barcelona over 0.585.0%1.18
- Barcelona over 1.556.6%1.77
- Barcelona over 2.529.6%3.37
- Alaves clean sheet15.0%6.69
- Barcelona clean sheet41.9%2.39
- Alaves win to nil8.1%12.28
- Barcelona win to nil35.0%2.85
Handicap
- Alaves −1.55.3%19.01
- Alaves −2.51.3%78.56
- Barcelona +1.594.7%1.06
- Barcelona +2.598.7%1.01
- Barcelona −1.536.7%2.72
- Alaves +1.563.3%1.58
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored355
Favourite won51.5%
Avg chance given to result40.9%
1X2 Brier0.580
Over 2.5 called right57.2%
BTTS called right57.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 73 | 37.9% | 30.1% |
| 40–50% | 141 | 44.5% | 46.1% |
| 50–60% | 72 | 54.7% | 61.1% |
| 60–70% | 35 | 63.9% | 62.9% |
| 70–80% | 27 | 74.5% | 85.2% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 278 of 355 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5764 | 0.5705 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.1% | 41.7% |
| Favourite won | 52.9% | 54.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 278 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Espanyol 2–0 Athletic Club33·29·38
- ✗Villarreal 2–3 Sevilla56·26·18
- ✓Osasuna 1–2 Atletico Madrid30·27·43
- ✓Real Betis 2–1 Elche53·24·22
- ✗Celta Vigo 2–3 Levante45·28·27
- ✗Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Girona51·25·23
- ✓Barcelona 2–0 Real Madrid54·24·23
- ✗Oviedo 0–0 Getafe38·31·31
- ✗Athletic Club 0–1 Valencia47·28·25
- ✗Mallorca 1–1 Villarreal31·28·41
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 355 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.