Alaves vs Celta Vigo – 22 Nov 2025

La Liga Gameweek 13 Sat, Nov 22 · 13:00 Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

Alaves 10th · 15 pts · 12 played WDLWL

0–1Full time

Celta Vigo 13th · 13 pts · 12 played DDWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 48). Alaves had 14 days of rest, Celta Vigo 12.7 and had to travel 500 km.

Away travel500 kmRest days14 · 12.7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Alaves37%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo35%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.25

Alaves37%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo36%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.33

Alaves36%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo36%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.25

Alaves30%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo42%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.40

Alaves37%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo36%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.33

Over 2.5 46% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.39
Matches 31

Team strength

Alaves

Celta Vigo

48 L90 StrengthIn forecast 60

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

48 AttackIn forecast 36

55 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alaves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Alaves

Celta Vigo

0.92 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

0.92 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.05 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

0.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.09

58% Scored inContext 92%

17% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.67 ShotsContext 11.42

3.58 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.75

31% On target shareContext 33%

7.82 Shots in the boxContext 6.92

63% Box shareContext 57%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.67 OffsidesContext 3.00

10.75 Shots allowedContext 12.33

3.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.91 BlocksContext 3.00

2.45 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.91

73% Save rateContext 74%

52% PossessionIn forecast 51%

426 PassesContext 503

344 Accurate passesContext 434

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.84

15.25 FoulsContext 11.42

13.67 Fouls sufferedContext 11.25

2.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

0.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.55

60% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.40 ShotsContext 12.20

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

30% On target shareContext 33%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

63% Box shareContext 61%

8% ConversionContext 16%

2.86 OffsidesContext 2.78

10.60 Shots allowedContext 12.70

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

4.00 BlocksContext 3.80

2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

69% Save rateContext 75%

51% PossessionIn forecast 49%

416 PassesContext 488

335 Accurate passesContext 422

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.89

15.20 FoulsContext 12.50

14.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alaves

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km923 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Celta Vigo

Rest12.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel500 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alaves	Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Nov	12.7La Liga 2025-2026, 9 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	500 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	923 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	5.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alaves Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Antonio Sivera(G)

3Youssef Lekhedim 5Jon Pacheco 14F. Tenaglia 17Jonny

10Carles Aleñá 4Denis Suárez 8Antonio Blanco 7Carlos Vicente

15L. Boyé 11Toni Martínez

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 2C. Starfelt 32Javi Rodríguez

5Sergio Carreira 6I. Moriba 8Fran Beltrán 17Javi Rueda

15Bryan Zaragoza 18Pablo Durán 10Iago Aspas

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alaves Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Celta Vigo Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Alaves+0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Celta Vigo-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Alaves · Home 1.83points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.00

Celta Vigo · Away 1.60points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-1
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 8 this season

Opponent	Alaves	Celta Vigo
Girona	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Rayo Vallecano	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 A
Elche	W 3–1 H	L 1–2 A
Mallorca	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 A
Getafe	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 H
Atletico Madrid	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Real Betis	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Levante	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 A
Points	8 of 24 · 1.00 per game	8 of 24 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Alaves wins2 draws5 Celta Vigo wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.88 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets13% · 25%

27 Jan 2025Alaves1–1Celta Vigo
16 Aug 2024Celta Vigo2–1Alaves
27 Apr 2024Alaves3–0Celta Vigo
28 Sep 2023Celta Vigo1–1Alaves
7 May 2022Celta Vigo4–0Alaves
27 Nov 2021Alaves1–2Celta Vigo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Alaves	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	0.92	1.25
Conceded per game	0.92	1.50
Match goals	1.83	2.75	2.52
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	33%	33%	46%
Over 3.5	8%	17%
Both teams scored	50%	92%	52%
Clean sheets	17%	0%
Failed to score	42%	8%
Games	12	12

	Alaves	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.90
Conceded per game	0.90	1.50
Match goals	1.80	3.40	2.52
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	30%	80%	46%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	90%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	40%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alaves	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	5.27	4.67
Corners conceded	4.64	4.75
Match total	9.91	9.42	9.76
Over 8.5	55% 6/11	58% 7/12
Over 9.5	45% 5/11	42% 5/12
Over 10.5	45% 5/11	33% 4/12
Cards
Cards	2.33	2.08
Opponent cards	2.33	2.67
Match total	4.66	4.75	4.25
Over 3.5	75% 9/12	67% 8/12
Over 4.5	58% 7/12	58% 7/12

	Alaves	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	3.30
Corners conceded	5.00	5.10
Match total	10.11	8.40	9.76
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.20
Opponent cards	2.50	2.80
Match total	5.00	5.00	4.25
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 31 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.29league 4.01

Red cards0.23league 0.25

Cards 5+42%league 44%

Fouls25.8league 24.5

Penalties0.39league 0.35

Home wins52%league 49%

Alaves3 with this referee

Record0-1-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 1

D3 May 25H · Atletico Madrid0–03
L3 Feb 24H · Barcelona1–32
L28 Aug 23A · Getafe0–12

Celta Vigo3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D19 Oct 25H · Real Sociedad1–14
W24 May 25A · Getafe2–14
L12 Apr 24A · Real Betis1–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.