Alaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alaves were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Alaves had 6.8 days of rest, Espanyol 8 and had to travel 426 km.
Away travel426 kmRest days6.8 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Alaves41%
Draw28%
Espanyol31%
Alaves41%
Draw27%
Espanyol32%
Alaves40%
Draw29%
Espanyol31%
Alaves34%
Draw28%
Espanyol38%
Alaves41%
Draw27%
Espanyol32%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainGuillermo Cuadra Fernandez
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.45
- Matches 31
Team strength
Alaves
Espanyol
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
48
AttackIn forecast
36
55
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEspanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlavesEspanyol
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.40
ShotsContext
13.50
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
30%
On target shareContext
38%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
61%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.20
Shots allowedContext
12.70
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.33
BlocksContext
3.50
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
76%
Save rateContext
79%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
418
PassesContext
347
335
Accurate passesContext
279
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.88
15.30
FoulsContext
14.00
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.40
ShotsContext
13.50
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
30%
On target shareContext
38%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
61%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.20
Shots allowedContext
12.70
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.33
BlocksContext
3.50
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
76%
Save rateContext
79%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
418
PassesContext
347
335
Accurate passesContext
279
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.88
15.30
FoulsContext
14.00
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alaves
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km568 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Espanyol
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel426 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alaves |
Espanyol |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 8La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 426 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 568 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
3Youssef Lekhedim
24Víctor Parada
14F. Tenaglia
17Jonny
10Carles Aleñá
4Denis Suárez
8Antonio Blanco
20Calebe
15L. Boyé
11Toni Martínez
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
22Carlos Romero
6L. Cabrera
38C. Riedel
2Rubén Sánchez
20Antoniu Roca
8Edu Expósito
10Pol Lozano
17Jofre Carreras
19Kike García
11Pere Milla
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alaves
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Espanyol
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alaves+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Espanyol-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Alaves · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.00
Espanyol · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Alaves | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | D 0–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Elche | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Mallorca | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Real Betis | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game | 10 of 15 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Alaves wins0 draws3 Espanyol wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 22 Feb 2025Alaves0–1Espanyol
- 14 Sep 2024Espanyol3–2Alaves
- 11 May 2022Alaves2–1Espanyol
- 22 Sep 2021Espanyol1–0Alaves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alaves | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.50 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Alaves | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.50 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alaves | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.22 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.55 | 8.60 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.20 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Alaves | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.22 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.55 | 8.60 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.20 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez Spain · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.52league 4.06
Red cards0.32league 0.26
Cards 5+61%league 44%
Fouls26.1league 24.6
Penalties0.45league 0.37
Home wins52%league 47%
Alaves2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D24 May 25H · Osasuna1–12
- W21 Aug 23H · Sevilla4–31
Espanyol1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L4 May 25H · Real Betis1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alaves10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
4
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
