Alaves vs Getafe – 8 Feb 2026

La Liga Gameweek 23 Sun, Feb 8 · 13:00 Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

Alaves 10th · 25 pts · 22 played DLLWW

0–2Full time

Getafe 16th · 23 pts · 22 played DLLDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Alaves were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Alaves. Alaves had 8.7 days of rest, Getafe 6.8 and had to travel 296 km.

Away travel296 kmRest days8.7 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Alaves48%

Draw28%

Getafe24%

Expected goals 1.41 – 0.91

Alaves47%

Draw26%

Getafe27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Alaves47%

Draw29%

Getafe24%

Expected goals 1.37 – 0.90

Alaves41%

Draw30%

Getafe29%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.02

Alaves49%

Draw27%

Getafe24%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.01

Over 2.5 41% Both score 46% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 37

Team strength

Alaves

Getafe

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

48 AttackIn forecast 27

55 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alaves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Getafe

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Alaves

Getafe

0.91 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.73

1.23 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.23

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 0.69

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

64% Scored inContext 55%

14% Clean sheetsContext 23%

11.36 ShotsContext 9.23

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.80

34% On target shareContext 28%

7.24 Shots in the boxContext 5.30

64% Box shareContext 54%

8% ConversionContext 8%

2.82 OffsidesContext 2.75

12.14 Shots allowedContext 10.00

3.73 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.91

4.00 BlocksContext 2.45

2.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

67% Save rateContext 77%

50% PossessionIn forecast 41%

424 PassesContext 298

343 Accurate passesContext 212

81% Pass accuracyContext 71%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.71

14.68 FoulsContext 13.50

13.68 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00

2.05 Yellow cardsContext 2.68

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.40

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 0.59

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.97

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

70% Scored inContext 40%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.00 ShotsContext 9.80

4.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.67

37% On target shareContext 25%

6.60 Shots in the boxContext 5.90

65% Box shareContext 61%

8% ConversionContext 4%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.67

13.80 Shots allowedContext 10.10

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

4.11 BlocksContext 2.78

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

61% Save rateContext 76%

48% PossessionIn forecast 42%

423 PassesContext 312

343 Accurate passesContext 224

81% Pass accuracyContext 72%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.72

14.00 FoulsContext 13.80

13.70 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alaves

Rest8.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km853 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Getafe

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel296 km1,160 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alaves	Getafe
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.7La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Jan	6.8La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	296 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	853 km	1,160 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alaves Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Antonio Sivera(G)

17Jonny 5Jon Pacheco 2F. Garcés 14F. Tenaglia

10Carles Aleñá 8Antonio Blanco 19Pablo Ibáñez 20Calebe

15L. Boyé 11Toni Martínez

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Getafe Confirmed XI

5-3-2

13David Soria(G)

21Juan Iglesias 24Z. Romero 2D. Dakonam 22Domingos Duarte 17Kiko Femenía

8M. Arambarri 5Luis Milla 6Mario Martín

10M. Satriano 19L. Vázquez

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alaves Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Getafe Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Alaves+0.9 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Getafe-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Alaves · Home 1.64points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 5-3-3
Scored: 1.27
Conceded: 1.00

Getafe · Away 1.00points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 3-2-6
Scored: 0.73
Conceded: 1.64

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Alaves	Getafe
Espanyol	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H	L 0–1 H
Real Betis	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A	L 0–4 A
Atletico Madrid	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H	L 0–1 H
Villarreal	L 1–3 A	L 0–2 A
Oviedo	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 H
Osasuna	L 0–3 A	L 1–2 A
Real Madrid	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 H
Real Sociedad	W 1–0 H	L 1–2 H
Barcelona	L 1–3 A	L 0–3 A
Celta Vigo	L 0–1 H	D 0–0 HW 2–0 A
Girona	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Rayo Vallecano	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 A
Valencia	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
Elche	W 3–1 H	W 1–0 H
Mallorca	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 A
Sevilla	L 1–2 H	W 2–1 A
Athletic Club	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 A
Levante	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 H
Points	24 of 63 · 1.14 per game	22 of 63 · 1.05 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 Alaves wins5 draws3 Getafe wins

Goals per game0.56 – 0.89 Over 2.511% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 56%

24 Sep 2025Getafe1–1Alaves
9 Feb 2025Alaves0–1Getafe
28 Sep 2024Getafe2–0Alaves
18 May 2024Alaves1–0Getafe
28 Aug 2023Getafe1–0Alaves
26 Feb 2022Getafe2–2Alaves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Alaves	Getafe	Forecast
Scored per game	0.91	0.73
Conceded per game	1.23	1.23
Match goals	2.14	1.95	2.32
Over 1.5	59%	64%
Over 2.5	45%	32%	41%
Over 3.5	14%	5%
Both teams scored	55%	36%	46%
Clean sheets	14%	23%
Failed to score	36%	45%
Games	22	22

	Alaves	Getafe	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	0.40
Conceded per game	1.60	1.30
Match goals	2.50	1.70	2.32
Over 1.5	70%	50%
Over 2.5	60%	20%	41%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	30%	46%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	30%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alaves	Getafe	League
Corners
Corners won	5.05	4.50
Corners conceded	4.65	3.91
Match total	9.70	8.41	9.58
Over 8.5	60% 12/20	41% 9/22
Over 9.5	50% 10/20	32% 7/22
Over 10.5	45% 9/20	23% 5/22
Cards
Cards	2.14	2.82
Opponent cards	1.95	2.18
Match total	4.09	5.00	4.41
Over 3.5	64% 14/22	73% 16/22
Over 4.5	41% 9/22	59% 13/22

	Alaves	Getafe	League
Corners
Corners won	4.78	3.90
Corners conceded	4.67	4.10
Match total	9.45	8.00	9.58
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.80
Opponent cards	1.50	2.30
Match total	3.40	5.10	4.41
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 37 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.24league 4.14

Red cards0.24league 0.27

Cards 5+41%league 45%

Fouls26.0league 24.5

Penalties0.38league 0.36

Home wins49%league 48%

Alaves4 with this referee

Record0-1-3 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 2

L22 Nov 25H · Celta Vigo0–12
D3 May 25H · Atletico Madrid0–03
L3 Feb 24H · Barcelona1–32
L28 Aug 23A · Getafe0–12

Getafe2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

L24 May 25H · Celta Vigo1–24
W28 Aug 23H · Alaves1–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.