Alaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alaves were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Alaves. Alaves had 3.7 days of rest, Mallorca 3.8 and had to travel 575 km.
Away travel575 kmRest days3.7 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Alaves45%
Draw26%
Mallorca28%
Alaves41%
Draw27%
Mallorca32%
Alaves44%
Draw26%
Mallorca29%
Alaves38%
Draw27%
Mallorca35%
Alaves46%
Draw25%
Mallorca29%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 41
Team strength
Alaves
Mallorca
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
48
AttackIn forecast
50
55
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlavesMallorca
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.53
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
69%
Scored inContext
75%
9%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
12.09
ShotsContext
10.25
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.13
32%
On target shareContext
39%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
65%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.31
OffsidesContext
2.05
12.59
Shots allowedContext
14.41
4.09
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.74
4.20
BlocksContext
4.38
2.65
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.45
63%
Save rateContext
70%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
417
PassesContext
378
338
Accurate passesContext
305
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.81
14.91
FoulsContext
10.84
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.09
2.19
Yellow cardsContext
2.22
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
80%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.70
ShotsContext
11.00
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
29%
On target shareContext
38%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.44
68%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.75
13.60
Shots allowedContext
15.30
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.60
BlocksContext
4.60
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
57%
Save rateContext
64%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
402
PassesContext
407
326
Accurate passesContext
339
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.85
15.40
FoulsContext
10.60
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alaves
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km721 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Mallorca
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel575 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alaves |
Mallorca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.7La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Apr | 3.8La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 575 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 721 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 6.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
21A. Rebbach
24Víctor Parada
14F. Tenaglia
17Jonny
7Ángel Pérez
10Carles Aleñá
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
15L. Boyé
11Toni Martínez
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
22J. Mojica
24M. Valjent
27David López
23Pablo Maffeo
10Darder
5Omar Mascarell
12Samú Costa
20Pablo Torre
17J. Virgili
7V. Muriqi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alaves
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Mallorca
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alaves+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Mallorca-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Alaves · Home
1.40points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-6-4
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 1.20
Mallorca · Away
0.40points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-11
- Scored
- 0.87
- Conceded
- 1.93
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Alaves | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Osasuna | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 4–3 AL 0–1 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Villarreal | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Valencia | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Levante | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Girona | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Sevilla | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Getafe | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Real Betis | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Oviedo | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 A | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Elche | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 A | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 33 of 93 · 1.06 per game | 32 of 93 · 1.03 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Alaves wins3 draws3 Mallorca wins
Goals per game0.57 – 0.86
Over 2.514%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets29% · 43%
- 27 Sep 2025Mallorca1–0Alaves
- 2 Mar 2025Mallorca1–1Alaves
- 1 Nov 2024Alaves1–0Mallorca
- 24 Feb 2024Alaves1–1Mallorca
- 3 Dec 2023Mallorca0–0Alaves
- 19 Apr 2022Mallorca2–1Alaves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alaves | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.53 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.78 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 66% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 66% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 25% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Alaves | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 2.70 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alaves | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.13 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 18/29 | 83% 25/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 15/29 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 14/29 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.34 | 2.34 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.22 | 2.28 | |
| Match total | 4.56 | 4.62 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 72% 23/32 | 59% 19/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 16/32 | 47% 15/32 | |
| Alaves | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 10.00 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 4.90 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.41league 4.27
Red cards0.17league 0.28
Cards 5+27%league 48%
Fouls24.3league 24.5
Penalties0.37league 0.37
Home wins49%league 49%
Alaves2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W6 Dec 25H · Real Sociedad1–02
- W24 Nov 23H · Granada CF3–11
Mallorca6 with this referee
Record1-0-5
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L21 Mar 26A · Elche1–23
- L4 Jan 26H · Girona1–22
- L14 May 25A · Real Madrid1–23
- L4 May 24H · Atletico Madrid0–12
- W9 Dec 23H · Sevilla1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alaves32 games · scored 36 · conceded 48
7
6
0-15
3
8
16-30
6
4
31-45
4
10
46-60
6
7
61-75
10
13
76-90
Mallorca32 games · scored 40 · conceded 49
4
6
0-15
4
9
16-30
7
12
31-45
3
2
46-60
11
6
61-75
11
14
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
3
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
0-15
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
