Alaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Osasuna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 44). Absences weigh more on Alaves. Alaves had 14.2 days of rest, Osasuna 15.1 and had to travel 84 km.
Away travel84 kmRest days14.2 · 15.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Alaves36%
Draw28%
Osasuna36%
Alaves36%
Draw27%
Osasuna36%
Alaves38%
Draw28%
Osasuna34%
Alaves30%
Draw28%
Osasuna43%
Alaves37%
Draw27%
Osasuna37%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 40
Team strength
Alaves
Osasuna
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
48
AttackIn forecast
50
55
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOsasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlavesOsasuna
1.03
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.41
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.21
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
66%
Scored inContext
66%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
11.69
ShotsContext
11.38
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.12
33%
On target shareContext
32%
7.64
Shots in the boxContext
8.37
65%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.48
OffsidesContext
2.06
12.38
Shots allowedContext
12.34
3.93
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.68
4.15
BlocksContext
3.44
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.52
64%
Save rateContext
73%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
420
PassesContext
373
340
Accurate passesContext
300
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.85
15.17
FoulsContext
13.21
13.45
Fouls sufferedContext
11.21
2.21
Yellow cardsContext
2.24
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
70%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.40
ShotsContext
13.20
5.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
35%
On target shareContext
33%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
65%
Box shareContext
72%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.14
14.20
Shots allowedContext
11.80
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
5.00
BlocksContext
3.75
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
60%
Save rateContext
67%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
408
PassesContext
361
327
Accurate passesContext
295
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.82
15.30
FoulsContext
14.50
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alaves
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Osasuna
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel84 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alaves |
Osasuna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.2La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 15.1La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 84 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.7 | 6.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
3Youssef Lekhedim
24Víctor Parada
14F. Tenaglia
17Jonny
18Jon Guridi
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
7Ángel Pérez
22I. Diabate
11Toni Martínez
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
20Javi Galán
22F. Boyomo
24Catena
19V. Rosier
6Lucas Torró
7Moncayola
11Kike Barja
10Aimar Oroz
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alaves
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Osasuna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alaves-2.0 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Osasuna+1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Alaves · Home
1.43points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-4
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.14
Osasuna · Away
0.60points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-10
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 1.27
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Alaves | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | W 4–3 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Villarreal | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Valencia | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Levante | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Girona | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Sevilla | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Getafe | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Real Betis | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Oviedo | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 AL 1–3 H |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Elche | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Mallorca | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 31 of 84 · 1.11 per game | 34 of 84 · 1.21 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
0 Alaves wins3 draws6 Osasuna wins
Goals per game0.44 – 1.56
Over 2.522%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 20 Dec 2025Osasuna3–0Alaves
- 24 May 2025Alaves1–1Osasuna
- 8 Dec 2024Osasuna2–2Alaves
- 4 Mar 2024Osasuna1–0Alaves
- 1 Oct 2023Alaves0–2Osasuna
- 10 Apr 2022Osasuna1–0Alaves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alaves | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.03 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.41 | 1.21 | |
| Match goals | 2.45 | 2.38 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 66% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 45% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 48% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 34% | 34% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Alaves | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alaves | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.88 | 3.32 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 4.68 | |
| Match total | 9.76 | 8.00 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 16/26 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 13/26 | 24% 6/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 12/26 | 8% 2/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 4.52 | 4.79 | 4.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 72% 21/29 | 79% 23/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 14/29 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Alaves | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 9.77 | 9.00 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 5.00 | 4.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.65league 4.24
Red cards0.28league 0.28
Cards 5+55%league 47%
Fouls23.6league 24.5
Penalties0.28league 0.36
Home wins48%league 49%
Alaves2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L20 Dec 25A · Osasuna0–32
- D28 Sep 23A · Celta Vigo1–13
Osasuna3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W20 Dec 25H · Alaves3–02
- W14 Sep 25H · Rayo Vallecano2–03
- W4 Jan 24H · Almeria1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alaves29 games · scored 30 · conceded 41
6
4
0-15
2
6
16-30
5
4
31-45
4
8
46-60
6
7
61-75
7
12
76-90
Osasuna28 games · scored 34 · conceded 35
4
0-15
2
6
16-30
11
4
31-45
8
46-60
2
12
61-75
15
5
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
9
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
