Alaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alaves were slight favourites.
Alaves were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 26). Alaves had 15 days of rest, Oviedo 15.2 and had to travel 264 km.
Away travel264 kmRest days15 · 15.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Alaves55%
Draw25%
Oviedo20%
Alaves56%
Draw24%
Oviedo20%
Alaves55%
Draw25%
Oviedo20%
Alaves47%
Draw27%
Oviedo26%
Alaves56%
Draw24%
Oviedo20%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMaria Eugenia Gil
Team strength
Alaves
Oviedo
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
48
AttackIn forecast
23
55
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlavesOviedo
0.82
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.41
1.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.53
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
0.70
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
59%
Scored inContext
24%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.65
ShotsContext
8.24
3.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.53
31%
On target shareContext
31%
7.25
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
67%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
5%
2.93
OffsidesContext
2.44
11.12
Shots allowedContext
15.12
3.47
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.24
3.67
BlocksContext
3.65
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.88
67%
Save rateContext
78%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
420
PassesContext
390
341
Accurate passesContext
325
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.78
15.41
FoulsContext
11.76
13.71
Fouls sufferedContext
11.24
2.24
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.18
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
0.68
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
-0.44
Goals minus xGContext
-0.38
50%
Scored inContext
10%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.60
ShotsContext
8.80
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.30
28%
On target shareContext
26%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
70%
Box shareContext
63%
7%
ConversionContext
3%
3.13
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.30
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
3.63
BlocksContext
2.50
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
63%
Save rateContext
78%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
421
PassesContext
421
346
Accurate passesContext
357
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.40
FoulsContext
12.00
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alaves
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Oviedo
Rest15.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel264 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alaves |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Dec | 15.2La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 264 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
3Youssef Lekhedim
5Jon Pacheco
14F. Tenaglia
17Jonny
8Antonio Blanco
10Carles Aleñá
4Denis Suárez
19Pablo Ibáñez
20Calebe
11Toni Martínez
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
3Abdel Rahim
2E. Bailly
4David Costas
24Lucas Ahijado
11S. Colombatto
6Kwasi Sibo
18J. Brekalo
5Alberto Reina
7I. Chaira
9Federico Viñas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alaves
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alaves-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Oviedo+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Alaves · Home
1.56points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-3
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.00
Oviedo · Away
0.50points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-6
- Scored
- 0.63
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Alaves | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | L 0–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Girona | L 0–1 A | D 3–3 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Valencia | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Elche | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Mallorca | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Getafe | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Sevilla | L 1–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Levante | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 18 of 48 · 1.13 per game | 11 of 48 · 0.69 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Alaves | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.82 | 0.41 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.18 | 1.53 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.94 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 53% | 59% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 29% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 12% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 18% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 76% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Alaves | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 1.70 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 10% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 90% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alaves | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.07 | 3.47 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.73 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 9.47 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 9/15 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 7/15 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 7/15 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.12 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.18 | 1.29 | |
| Match total | 4.47 | 3.41 | 4.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 76% 13/17 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 8/17 | 24% 4/17 | |
| Alaves | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.88 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 10.26 | 9.30 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.00 | 4.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Alaves17 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
3
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
Oviedo16 games · scored 7 · conceded 26
3
0-15
6
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
3
7
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
Oviedo9 games · scored 3 · conceded 14
1
0-15
5
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
