Alaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alaves were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Alaves had 15.3 days of rest, Valencia 16.2 and had to travel 422 km.
Away travel422 kmRest days15.3 · 16.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Alaves41%
Draw28%
Valencia31%
Alaves42%
Draw27%
Valencia31%
Alaves41%
Draw28%
Valencia31%
Alaves34%
Draw29%
Valencia37%
Alaves42%
Draw27%
Valencia31%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIosu Galech Apezteguia
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 5
Team strength
Alaves
Valencia
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
48
AttackIn forecast
39
55
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisValencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlavesValencia
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
75%
Scored inContext
75%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.25
ShotsContext
10.13
3.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
32%
On target shareContext
32%
7.43
Shots in the boxContext
6.86
60%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.57
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.25
Shots allowedContext
13.88
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.50
BlocksContext
4.14
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
73%
Save rateContext
65%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
416
PassesContext
388
333
Accurate passesContext
315
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.75
16.38
FoulsContext
11.00
13.88
Fouls sufferedContext
9.75
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.80
ShotsContext
9.70
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
32%
On target shareContext
31%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.75
58%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.75
10.80
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.50
BlocksContext
3.78
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
75%
Save rateContext
65%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
403
PassesContext
419
318
Accurate passesContext
342
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.77
17.00
FoulsContext
11.00
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alaves
Rest15.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Valencia
Rest16.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel422 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alaves |
Valencia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.3La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 16.2La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 422 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
5Jon Pacheco
14F. Tenaglia
17Jonny
3Youssef Lekhedim
21A. Rebbach
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
20Calebe
15L. Boyé
11Toni Martínez
Valencia
Confirmed XI
25Julen Agirrezabala(G)
14José Gayà
3Copete
5César Tárrega
12Thierry Correia
7A. Danjuma
8Javi Guerra
18Pepelu
11Luis Rioja
9Hugo Duro
16Diego López
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alaves
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Valencia
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alaves+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Valencia-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Alaves · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Valencia · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Alaves | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Alaves wins3 draws1 Valencia wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.13
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets38% · 13%
- 14 May 2025Alaves1–0Valencia
- 22 Dec 2024Valencia2–2Alaves
- 5 May 2024Valencia0–1Alaves
- 2 Sep 2023Alaves1–0Valencia
- 13 Feb 2022Alaves2–1Valencia
- 27 Aug 2021Valencia3–0Alaves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alaves | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 3.00 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 63% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Alaves | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 3.00 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 63% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alaves | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.38 | 5.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.57 | |
| Match total | 10.38 | 10.71 | 9.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.88 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.01 | 3.75 | 4.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 88% 7/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 6/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Alaves | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 9.78 | 9.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.70 | 4.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Iosu Galech Apezteguia Spain · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.20league 4.06
Red cards0.00league 0.29
Cards 5+60%league 45%
Fouls29.0league 24.6
Penalties0.20league 0.29
Home wins40%league 46%
Alaves1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 7.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L20 Sep 25H · Sevilla1–21
ValenciaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alaves8 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
Valencia8 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
