Alaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alaves were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Alaves. Alaves had 3.3 days of rest, Valencia 4 and had to travel 422 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel422 kmRest days3.3 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Alaves56%
Draw23%
Valencia21%
Alaves45%
Draw26%
Valencia30%
Alaves54%
Draw24%
Valencia23%
Alaves48%
Draw25%
Valencia27%
Alaves56%
Draw22%
Valencia21%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
20°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 16 km/h
- Humidity 74%
Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 22
Team strength
Alaves
Valencia
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
48
AttackIn forecast
39
55
DefenceIn forecast
52
77
Form indexContext
15
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisValencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlavesValencia
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.62
Goals minus xGContext
-0.57
100%
Scored inContext
20%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.00
ShotsContext
8.40
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.75
40%
On target shareContext
26%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
57%
Box shareContext
51%
16%
ConversionContext
2%
5.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.20
Shots allowedContext
14.20
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
2.60
BlocksContext
3.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
75%
Save rateContext
67%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
323
PassesContext
424
258
Accurate passesContext
350
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.63
15.00
FoulsContext
10.20
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
100%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.30
ShotsContext
10.40
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.63
42%
On target shareContext
28%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
64%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
4.00
OffsidesContext
2.10
10.40
Shots allowedContext
12.80
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.50
BlocksContext
3.22
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
75%
Save rateContext
67%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
300
PassesContext
399
232
Accurate passesContext
324
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.74
13.90
FoulsContext
9.60
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alaves
WDWWL
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km229 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 77 · 10 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +2.8 vs expected
Valencia
DLLLL
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel422 km1,079 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 15 · 1 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · -5.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alaves |
Valencia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.3La Liga 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 4La Liga 2026-2027, 11 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 422 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 229 km | 1,079 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.8 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
2N. Valentini
16V. Koski
14F. Tenaglia
21A. Rebbach
4Denis Suárez
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
7Ángel Pérez
15L. Boyé
11Toni Martínez
Valencia
Confirmed XI
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
14José Gayà
12J. de Haas
18Pepelu
24Pablo Maffeo
2G. Rodríguez
33Aaron Mayol
7A. Danjuma
8Javi Guerra
23F. Ugrinic
9Hugo Duro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alaves
Absences are shown before kick-off
Valencia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alaves+1.8 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Valencia-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Alaves · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Valencia · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Alaves wins4 draws2 Valencia wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.20
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 8 Mar 2026Valencia3–2Alaves
- 20 Oct 2025Alaves0–0Valencia
- 14 May 2025Alaves1–0Valencia
- 22 Dec 2024Valencia2–2Alaves
- 5 May 2024Valencia0–1Alaves
- 2 Sep 2023Alaves1–0Valencia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alaves | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 0.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.20 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 80% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Alaves | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.70 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alaves | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 7.60 | 10.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.60 | 4.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Alaves | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 8.80 | 10.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 3.80 | 4.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.82league 4.13
Red cards0.09league 0.25
Cards 5+41%league 46%
Fouls26.7league 24.5
Penalties0.32league 0.33
Home wins50%league 46%
Alaves3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Mar 26A · Celta Vigo4–32
- W30 Jan 26A · Espanyol2–11
- W16 Aug 25H · Levante2–10
Valencia1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 Mar 26A · Oviedo0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alaves5 games · scored 11 · conceded 5
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
76-90
Valencia5 games · scored 1 · conceded 10
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
4
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
