Levante
Attack−2%
Defense risk−7%
Our take
It looks too close to call.
Athletic Club are the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Athletic Club. Athletic Club are without Gorka Guruzeta. Levante have 5 days of rest, Athletic Club 4 and have to travel 472 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel472 kmRest days5 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Levante39%
Draw26%
Athletic Club35%
Levante40%
Draw27%
Athletic Club33%
Levante38%
Draw26%
Athletic Club36%
Levante32%
Draw26%
Athletic Club42%
Levante40%
Draw25%
Athletic Club35%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
20°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0%
- Wind 6 km/h
- Humidity 61%
RefereeAlejandro Quintero
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 17
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Levante and Athletic Club. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Athletic Club
+0.26
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.43xG against1.17
-
Trend
Levante
63%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Athletic Club
4
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Levante
1.5
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Athletic Club
5
Unbeaten in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Unbeaten in a row -
Insight
Levante
−0.36
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.43xG against1.79
Attack
-
Insight
Athletic Club
+0.26
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.43xG against1.17
-
Trend
Levante
1.5
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Levante
63%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Athletic Club
4
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Athletic Club
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Levante
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Levante
−0.36
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.43xG against1.79
Team strength
LevanteAthletic Club
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
55
AttackIn forecast
51
41
DefenceIn forecast
64
29
Form indexContext
70
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAthletic Club
Attack+18%
Defense risk−6%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
LevanteAthletic Club
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.86
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
2.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.48
63%
Scored inContext
57%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
57%
11.88
ShotsContext
14.71
4.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
36%
On target shareContext
29%
7.71
Shots in the boxContext
9.14
58%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
2.25
OffsidesContext
3.33
15.25
Shots allowedContext
10.43
5.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
3.38
BlocksContext
1.80
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
62%
Save rateContext
83%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
381
PassesContext
494
309
Accurate passesContext
420
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.88
9.88
FoulsContext
11.43
12.75
Fouls sufferedContext
11.71
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.43
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.20
ShotsContext
14.60
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
36%
On target shareContext
30%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
62%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.50
14.90
Shots allowedContext
10.10
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.56
BlocksContext
1.71
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
66%
Save rateContext
72%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
359
PassesContext
448
291
Accurate passesContext
372
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.77
9.60
FoulsContext
12.70
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levante
DLLDD
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,592 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 29 · 3 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
Athletic Club
WWDDD
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel472 km1,589 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levante |
Athletic Club |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5La Liga 2026-2027, 16 Oct | 4La Liga 2026-2027, 17 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 472 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,592 km | 1,589 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
3Ifeanyi Ndukwe
4Adrián de la Fuente
29Nacho Pérez
18E. Bardeli
20Oriol Rey
8Jon Ander Olasagasti
24T. Fernandez
9Iván Romero
27Paco Cortés
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
14A. Laporte
4Aitor Paredes
31J. Louis-Jean
18Mikel Jauregizar
16Ruíz de Galarreta
7Álex Berenguer
8Oihan Sancet
23Robert Navarro
21Maroan Sannadi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levante
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals
Attack line −7.7% · Defence line −0.6% of weighted minutes
- ATT E. Eyong Rotation 6.54 Att −6.2%
- MID Hugo Sotelo Rotation 6.70 Att −1.6% Def −0.6%
Athletic Club
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −30.5% · Defence line −7.3% of weighted minutes
- ATT Gorka Guruzeta Starter 6.64 Att −19.7%
- DEF Dani Vivian Rotation 6.60 Def −5.1%
- ATT I. Williams Rotation 6.56 Att −7.3%
- MID Peio Canales Rotation 6.65 Att −3.5% Def −2.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- Levante+1.1 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Athletic Club-1.2 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Levante · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 3.33
- Conceded
- 3.00
Athletic Club · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Levante | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | D 3–3 H | L 1–3 H |
| Barcelona | L 2–4 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Levante wins2 draws4 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets17% · 50%
- 8 Feb 2026Athletic Club4–2Levante
- 29 Nov 2025Levante0–2Athletic Club
- 7 Mar 2022Athletic Club3–1Levante
- 19 Nov 2021Levante0–0Athletic Club
- 26 Feb 2021Levante1–1Athletic Club
- 18 Oct 2020Athletic Club2–0Levante
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Levante | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.86 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 1.86 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 29% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 29% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 57% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 43% | |
| Games | 8 | 7 |
| Levante | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.30 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levante | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.86 | 6.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.71 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 10.57 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 4.15 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Levante | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 10.45 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.50 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Quintero 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.88league 4.34
Red cards0.35league 0.28
Cards 5+41%league 55%
Fouls27.4league 24.6
Penalties0.35league 0.34
Home wins53%league 44%
LevanteNo previous matches with this referee.
Athletic Club1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W21 Dec 24A · Osasuna2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levante8 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
Athletic Club7 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
