Alaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alaves. Alaves had 8 days of rest, Villarreal 5.2 and had to travel 388 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel388 kmRest days8 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Alaves36%
Draw25%
Villarreal38%
Alaves32%
Draw26%
Villarreal42%
Alaves36%
Draw25%
Villarreal38%
Alaves30%
Draw25%
Villarreal46%
Alaves37%
Draw25%
Villarreal38%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
20°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 10 km/h
- Humidity 55%
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 43
Team strength
Alaves
Villarreal
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
48
AttackIn forecast
76
55
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlavesVillarreal
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.97
xGVia Att/Def
2.14
0.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.50
ShotsContext
12.50
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
33%
On target shareContext
52%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
61%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
7.00
Shots allowedContext
18.00
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
1.50
BlocksContext
9.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
80%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
347
PassesContext
517
280
Accurate passesContext
462
81%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.77
14.50
FoulsContext
13.50
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
0.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
100%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.10
ShotsContext
11.30
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
34%
On target shareContext
44%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
67%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
20%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.70
Shots allowedContext
14.10
4.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.80
BlocksContext
5.22
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
68%
Save rateContext
73%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
328
PassesContext
461
258
Accurate passesContext
398
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.94
13.70
FoulsContext
10.60
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alaves
WD
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km590 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 62 · 4 pts vs 2.6 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alaves |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8La Liga 2026-2027, 20 Aug | 5.2La Liga 2026-2027, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 388 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 590 km | 1,618 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
21A. Rebbach
17Jonny
16V. Koski
14F. Tenaglia
7Ángel Pérez
18Mikel Rodríguez
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
15L. Boyé
11Toni Martínez
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
20Carlos Romero
12Renato Veiga
8J. Foyth
15S. Mouriño
17T. Buchanan
18P. Gueye
14Santi Comesaña
19N. Pépé
9G. Mikautadze
7Gerard Moreno
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alaves
Absences are shown before kick-off
Villarreal
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alaves+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Villarreal+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Alaves · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Villarreal · Away
1.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 Alaves wins3 draws4 Villarreal wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.90
Over 2.560%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets10% · 10%
- 13 Mar 2026Alaves1–1Villarreal
- 10 Jan 2026Villarreal3–1Alaves
- 8 Mar 2025Alaves1–0Villarreal
- 9 Nov 2024Villarreal3–0Alaves
- 10 Feb 2024Alaves1–1Villarreal
- 22 Oct 2023Villarreal1–1Alaves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alaves | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 4.00 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Alaves | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.70 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alaves | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 12.00 | 10.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 6.00 | 4.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Alaves | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 11.60 | 11.45 | 10.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 3.90 | 4.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.81league 4.48
Red cards0.30league 0.24
Cards 5+60%league 52%
Fouls25.8league 26.3
Penalties0.26league 0.43
Home wins35%league 43%
Alaves4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W18 May 25A · Valladolid1–02
- L21 Dec 23H · Real Madrid0–13
- L14 Aug 23A · Cadiz0–12
- L23 May 21A · Sevilla0–10
Villarreal6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L28 Feb 26A · Barcelona1–42
- W3 Jan 26A · Elche3–13
- W20 Sep 25H · Osasuna2–12
- W10 May 25A · Girona1–03
- W11 May 24H · Sevilla3–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alaves2 games · scored 4 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Villarreal2 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 22 · conceded 15
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
8
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
