Amed
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Amed were slight favourites.
Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Amed. Amed had 7.1 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 9 and had to travel 1,026 km.
Away travel1,026 kmRest days7.1 · 9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Amed42%
Draw25%
Istanbul Basaksehir33%
Amed39%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir35%
Amed42%
Draw25%
Istanbul Basaksehir33%
Amed35%
Draw25%
Istanbul Basaksehir40%
Amed42%
Draw25%
Istanbul Basaksehir33%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Diyarbakır)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 24
Team strength
Amed
Istanbul Basaksehir
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
38
AttackIn forecast
32
46
DefenceIn forecast
34
48
Form indexContext
26
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisIstanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AmedIstanbul Basaksehir
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
75%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
14.00
ShotsContext
13.25
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
30%
On target shareContext
26%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
53%
Box shareContext
57%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.50
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.25
2.33
BlocksContext
2.75
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
69%
Save rateContext
76%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
436
PassesContext
482
365
Accurate passesContext
412
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.50
FoulsContext
14.25
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.75
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.90
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
75%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.00
ShotsContext
14.50
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
30%
On target shareContext
32%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
53%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.29
9.50
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.33
BlocksContext
3.33
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
69%
Save rateContext
77%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
436
PassesContext
440
365
Accurate passesContext
376
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.96
13.50
FoulsContext
13.50
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Amed
WLWD
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,052 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 48 · 7 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
Istanbul Basaksehir
WLDL
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,026 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 26 · 4 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · -2.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Amed |
Istanbul Basaksehir |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 4 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,026 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,052 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Amed
Confirmed XI
40A. Lafont(G)
17C. Meraş
4D. Bates
5L. Dellova
7E. Krasniqi
8F. Soyalp
22R. Raveloson
74Mohamed Khalil
91D. Sabi'a
10S. Ballet
99G. Orban
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
98D. Dilmen(G)
21C. Opéri
3J. Opoku
23E. Bayram
42Ö. Şahiner
20U. Güneş
18J. Kałuziński
11A. Fayzullaev
8O. Kemen
70A. Skov Olsen
14E. Shomurodov
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Amed
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Istanbul Basaksehir
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Amed-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Istanbul Basaksehir+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Amed · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Istanbul Basaksehir · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Amed | Istanbul Basaksehir |
|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Amed | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Amed | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 70% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Amed | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.75 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 5.25 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Amed | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.80 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 4.30 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.21league 3.67
Red cards0.21league 0.17
Cards 5+38%league 40%
Fouls26.6league 25.9
Penalties0.42league 0.36
Home wins33%league 43%
AmedNo previous matches with this referee.
Istanbul Basaksehir1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L5 Oct 25A · Goztepe0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Amed4 games · scored 7 · conceded 5
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir4 games · scored 6 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Amed4 games · scored 7 · conceded 5
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 20 · conceded 11
5
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
