Amed
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Amed41.6%fair odds 2.40
Draw25.9%fair odds 3.87
Istanbul Basaksehir32.5%fair odds 3.07
Expected goals1.55 – 1.35total 2.90
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Istanbul Basaksehir
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Amed ↓ · Istanbul Basaksehir → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Amed goals, columns Istanbul Basaksehir goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.24
- 2–18.9%11.20
- 1–07.9%12.59
- 1–27.8%12.89
- 0–16.8%14.67
- 2–06.6%15.08
- 0–06.1%16.32
- 2–26.0%16.62
- 0–25.0%19.99
- 3–14.6%21.66
Winning margin
8.4%
Amed by 3+
fair 11.92
12.6%
Amed by 2
fair 7.91
20.6%
Amed by 1
fair 4.86
25.9%
Draw
fair 3.87
17.8%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 1
fair 5.62
9.5%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 2
fair 10.49
5.2%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 3+
fair 19.27
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Amed goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
7%4+
Istanbul Basaksehir goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amed win | 41.6% | 41.8% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.0% | -0.1 pp |
| Istanbul Basaksehir win | 32.5% | 32.3% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 54.9% | +0.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.9% | 58.5% | +0.4 pp |
| Expected goals Amed | 1.55 | 1.54 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Istanbul Basaksehir | 1.35 | 1.33 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Amed win41.6%2.40
- Draw25.9%3.87
- Istanbul Basaksehir win32.5%3.07
- Double chance Amed or draw67.5%1.48
- Double chance Amed or Istanbul Basaksehir74.1%1.35
- Double chance Istanbul Basaksehir or draw58.4%1.71
- Draw no bet Amed56.1%1.78
- Draw no bet Istanbul Basaksehir43.9%2.28
Goals
- Over 0.593.9%1.07
- Over 1.579.1%1.26
- Over 2.555.3%1.81
- Over 3.533.0%3.03
- Over 4.516.8%5.96
- Under 1.520.9%4.79
- Under 2.544.7%2.24
- Under 3.567.0%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes58.9%1.70
- No41.1%2.43
- Yes and over 2.546.8%2.14
- Amed win and yes21.7%4.60
- Draw and yes19.7%5.07
- Istanbul Basaksehir win and yes17.4%5.73
Team goals
- Amed over 0.578.8%1.27
- Amed over 1.545.9%2.18
- Amed over 2.520.4%4.90
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 0.574.0%1.35
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.539.0%2.57
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 2.515.4%6.50
- Amed clean sheet26.0%3.85
- Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet21.2%4.71
- Amed win to nil19.9%5.03
- Istanbul Basaksehir win to nil15.1%6.63
Handicap
- Amed −1.521.0%4.76
- Amed −2.58.4%11.92
- Istanbul Basaksehir +1.579.0%1.27
- Istanbul Basaksehir +2.591.6%1.09
- Istanbul Basaksehir −1.514.7%6.79
- Amed +1.585.3%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored42
Favourite won42.9%
Avg chance given to result38.1%
1X2 Brier0.630
Over 2.5 called right54.8%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.6% | 42.9% |
| 40–50% | 18 | 44.9% | 27.8% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 55.0% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 65.0% | 60.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 75.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 16 of 42 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6103 | 0.6171 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.2% | 38.5% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 43.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 16 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 42 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.