Anderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Anderlecht
3rd · 22 pts · 13 played
DWDLW
1–0Full time
Club Brugge KV
2nd · 29 pts · 13 played
WWWWW
Our take
Club Brugge KV were slight favourites.
Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 46). Anderlecht had 7.7 days of rest, Club Brugge KV 7.8 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days7.7 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Anderlecht30%
Draw27%
Club Brugge KV43%
Anderlecht30%
Draw27%
Club Brugge KV43%
Anderlecht30%
Draw27%
Club Brugge KV43%
Anderlecht24%
Draw25%
Club Brugge KV51%
Anderlecht30%
Draw27%
Club Brugge KV43%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussel)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumEric Lambrechts
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 41
Team strength
AnderlechtClub Brugge KV
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
37
AttackIn forecast
86
52
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisClub Brugge KV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AnderlechtClub Brugge KV
1.54
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.62
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.92
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.82
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
77%
Scored inContext
92%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
46%
14.85
ShotsContext
15.69
5.08
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.92
34%
On target shareContext
31%
8.85
Shots in the boxContext
10.54
60%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.27
OffsidesContext
2.09
10.92
Shots allowedContext
11.62
3.15
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.00
BlocksContext
2.62
2.08
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.31
63%
Save rateContext
83%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
445
PassesContext
560
363
Accurate passesContext
491
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.06
13.85
FoulsContext
9.54
10.46
Fouls sufferedContext
12.08
2.31
Yellow cardsContext
1.23
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.61
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.50
ShotsContext
12.30
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
32%
On target shareContext
36%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
59%
Box shareContext
61%
7%
ConversionContext
15%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.40
Shots allowedContext
15.00
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.10
BlocksContext
3.50
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
69%
Save rateContext
71%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
443
PassesContext
512
361
Accurate passesContext
446
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.01
14.40
FoulsContext
8.70
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Anderlecht
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Club Brugge KV
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel88 km173 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Anderlecht |
Club Brugge KV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 7.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 173 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.2 | 13.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
55M. Kana
3L. Hey
7I. Camara
13N. Saliba
74N. De Cat
19N. Angulo
11T. Hazard
91A. Bertaccini
9M. CvetkoviÄ
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed XI
29N. Jackers(G)
65J. Seys
44B. Mechele
4J. Ordoñez
64K. Sabbe
15R. Onyedika
25A. Stanković
8C. Tzolis
20H. Vanaken
9Carlos Forbs
17R. Vermant
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Club Brugge KV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Anderlecht · Home
2.00points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-1
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 1.00
Club Brugge KV · Away
1.86points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Anderlecht | Club Brugge KV |
|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| St. Truiden | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Standard Liege | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| OH Leuven | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Gent | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Antwerp | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Genk | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Dender | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Zulte Waregem | L 2–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 5–2 H | D 5–5 H |
| Points | 22 of 36 · 1.83 per game | 29 of 36 · 2.42 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Anderlecht wins1 draws0 Club Brugge KV wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 25 Feb 2024Club Brugge KV1–2Anderlecht
- 24 Sep 2023Anderlecht1–1Club Brugge KV
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Anderlecht | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.54 | 1.62 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.92 | |
| Match goals | 2.54 | 2.54 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 62% | |
| Over 2.5 | 31% | 38% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 8% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 46% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 46% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 8% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Anderlecht | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.50 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 30% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Anderlecht | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.23 | 6.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.77 | 4.08 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.75 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 85% 11/13 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 8/13 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 5/13 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.54 | 1.31 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 2.46 | |
| Match total | 4.62 | 3.77 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 8/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 7/13 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Anderlecht | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.10 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 10.00 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 3.40 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Lambrechts Belgium · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.95league 3.81
Red cards0.15league 0.21
Cards 5+41%league 41%
Fouls23.2league 23.1
Penalties0.34league 0.29
Home wins49%league 44%
Anderlecht6 with this referee
Record3-2-1
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D20 Sep 25H · Antwerp0–03
- L16 Mar 24H · Kortrijk0–11
- W25 Feb 24A · Club Brugge KV2–14
- W11 Feb 24A · Charleroi3–10
- D17 Dec 23A · Antwerp1–14
Club Brugge KV3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L25 Feb 24H · Anderlecht1–20
- D12 Nov 23H · Cercle Brugge0–02
- L8 Oct 23A · Standard Liege1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Anderlecht13 games · scored 20 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
Club Brugge KV13 games · scored 21 · conceded 12
2
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
61-75
5
76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
3
5
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
