Anderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Anderlecht were slight favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 38). Anderlecht had 14 days of rest, Genk 14 and had to travel 82 km.
Away travel82 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Anderlecht50%
Draw25%
Genk25%
Anderlecht50%
Draw26%
Genk25%
Anderlecht50%
Draw25%
Genk25%
Anderlecht42%
Draw26%
Genk31%
Anderlecht50%
Draw26%
Genk25%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussel)
No weather data yet
RefereeLothar D'hondt
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 26
Team strength
Anderlecht
Genk
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
37
AttackIn forecast
46
52
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AnderlechtGenk
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
80%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.00
ShotsContext
15.40
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
39%
On target shareContext
36%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
59%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
3.33
OffsidesContext
—
10.60
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.40
BlocksContext
3.20
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
53%
Save rateContext
65%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
446
PassesContext
517
367
Accurate passesContext
452
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.01
15.00
FoulsContext
10.20
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
2.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.33
ShotsContext
14.60
6.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
41%
On target shareContext
38%
9.22
Shots in the boxContext
9.13
60%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.17
10.67
Shots allowedContext
10.90
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.89
BlocksContext
2.40
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
60%
Save rateContext
67%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
472
PassesContext
493
399
Accurate passesContext
418
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.93
Team ratingContext
7.00
16.33
FoulsContext
10.30
8.89
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Anderlecht
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genk
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel82 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Anderlecht |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 14Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 82 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
55M. Kana
3L. Hey
54K. Sardella
24E. Llansana
74N. De Cat
83T. Degreef
11T. Hazard
21C. Huerta
20L. Vázquez
Genk
Confirmed XI
26T. Lawal(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
8B. Heynen
21I. Bangoura
10J. Ito
20K. Karetsas
7J. Steuckers
9H. Oh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genk+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Anderlecht · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Genk · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Anderlecht | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| Zulte Waregem | L 2–3 H | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Anderlecht wins1 draws0 Genk wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 23 Dec 2023Anderlecht2–1Genk
- 3 Sep 2023Genk1–1Anderlecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Anderlecht | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.20 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Anderlecht | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.20 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Anderlecht | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 9.60 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.00 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Anderlecht | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.10 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 3.70 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lothar D'hondt 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 3.71
Red cards0.31league 0.24
Cards 5+35%league 39%
Fouls24.1league 23.0
Penalties0.27league 0.39
Home wins38%league 47%
Anderlecht3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.0.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W27 Dec 23H · Cercle Brugge2–01
- W1 Dec 23A · KVC Westerlo3–10
- W27 Aug 23H · Charleroi2–10
Genk4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- W15 Aug 25A · OH Leuven2–12
- D28 Jan 24A · St. Truiden1–15
- L4 Nov 23A · Antwerp2–34
- D24 Sep 23H · St. Truiden3–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Anderlecht5 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Genk5 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
4
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
