Anderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Anderlecht were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Anderlecht had 3 days of rest, Gent 4 and had to travel 50 km.
Away travel50 kmRest days3 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Anderlecht46%
Draw26%
Gent28%
Anderlecht46%
Draw26%
Gent27%
Anderlecht47%
Draw26%
Gent27%
Anderlecht39%
Draw27%
Gent34%
Anderlecht46%
Draw26%
Gent28%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussel)
No weather data yet
RefereeNicolas Laforge
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.48
- Matches 25
Team strength
Anderlecht
Gent
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
37
AttackIn forecast
46
52
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AnderlechtGent
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.57
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
71%
Scored inContext
100%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
15.29
ShotsContext
14.29
5.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.86
34%
On target shareContext
34%
8.86
Shots in the boxContext
9.57
58%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.60
11.00
Shots allowedContext
12.29
3.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
3.43
BlocksContext
4.60
1.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.57
57%
Save rateContext
76%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
443
PassesContext
487
364
Accurate passesContext
408
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.91
14.29
FoulsContext
10.43
9.43
Fouls sufferedContext
10.57
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.11
ShotsContext
13.30
5.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
36%
On target shareContext
32%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
57%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.71
11.33
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.11
BlocksContext
4.00
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
69%
Save rateContext
78%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
464
PassesContext
489
389
Accurate passesContext
412
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.92
15.89
FoulsContext
12.20
8.22
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Anderlecht
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Gent
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel50 km111 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Anderlecht |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 4Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 50 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 111 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
5M. N'Diaye
55M. Kana
3L. Hey
79A. Maamar
74N. De Cat
29M. Stroeykens
19N. Angulo
21C. Huerta
20L. Vázquez
13N. Saliba
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
3M. Paskotši
25Hatim Essaouabi
8M. Skóraś
15A. Ito
17M. Delorge-Knieper
29J. Duverne
37A. Kadri
6O. Gandelman
7A. Kanga
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Anderlecht
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Gent
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Anderlecht-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Anderlecht · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Gent · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Anderlecht | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| Antwerp | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Dender | W 2–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Anderlecht wins1 draws0 Gent wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 4 Feb 2024Anderlecht1–0Gent
- 12 Nov 2023Gent1–1Anderlecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Anderlecht | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.86 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 57% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Anderlecht | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.86 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 57% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Anderlecht | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.57 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.71 | 10.00 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.71 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.71 | 3.43 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Anderlecht | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 10.40 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.20 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nicolas Laforge 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.52league 3.77
Red cards0.16league 0.23
Cards 5+48%league 40%
Fouls22.3league 23.0
Penalties0.48league 0.34
Home wins40%league 42%
Anderlecht3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W9 Mar 24A · RWDM3–01
- W4 Feb 24H · Gent1–01
- W7 Oct 23H · KV Mechelen3–12
Gent7 with this referee
Record2-4-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D16 Aug 25A · KV Mechelen1–11
- L4 Feb 24A · Anderlecht0–14
- D3 Dec 23A · Genk2–22
- W29 Oct 23H · Standard Liege3–12
- D27 Sep 23A · Antwerp0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Anderlecht7 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Gent7 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
